
From flamingos to stones!
After 135 days of peaceful protests, today was the first day of the student protest and it started with violence!
The students did not show up like the “Flamingo” protesters. They, today, face a more expensive Tirana and the question of whether it is worth staying in the country. This makes their protest less predictable.
For 135 days, the daily protest operated on an unwritten contract: do whatever you want, but no violence.
The government bet on time: the protest would tire, the numbers would drop. It partially succeeded. The numbers in the square dropped, but the drop in numbers does not mean the discontent has subsided. Today it seemed that some of the protesters had lost faith in the peaceful path.
The student protest square is the same as eight years ago, but there are no more memes and eight demands!
At that time, after several weeks of protests, the government announced the Pact for the University, while today the demands are of a political nature. As a result, the space for solutions and compromise becomes much smaller.
One element that deserves special attention today is the police intervention. Instead of calming the situation, today's intervention seems to have escalated it. Eggs and stones brought gas, gas brought more stones, and the clash took on a dynamic that could become increasingly difficult to control.
The French experience offers a picture worth “seeing”. Even in protests where material damage has been much greater, the French police use, depending on the circumstances, crowd management tactics that aim to avoid immediate clashes and to distinguish peaceful protesters from violent individuals. Of course, the interventions of the French police have also often been criticized for disproportionate use of force. But the principle remains: the response to violence must be necessary, proportionate and focused on the persons who exercise it, not on the entire crowd.
Police intervention is not only measured by the ability to clear the square, but also by the ability to prevent an incident from turning into a larger clash. A square can be cleared in a few minutes, but the anger that a wrong intervention produces can last for days…
If today's violence remains an isolated episode, the government can handle it without much difficulty. But if the violence repeats, the police intervention is perceived as disproportionate, and students from other universities, professors, and parents join the protest, the situation could take a different turn.
The protest could escalate and start a spiral of violence that spirals out of control, even if no one intended or planned it.
The government just proved that it has 85 votes in the Assembly, but parliamentary votes and social legitimacy are not the same thing. It would be an incomplete reading to see the protest only through stones and broken glass.
The police can disperse protesters from the square with water cannons, but they cannot quell the resentment that has brought them out in the protest.
If the protest continues and violence recurs, then we could move from a public order crisis to a political crisis.