
With Democrats in power, Trump may be under siege and losing his dominance over the Republican Party - but his identity will relish the prospect of war.
David Smith - The Guardian
Donald Trump posted on social media this summer a document written by a purported historian that compared him to, among others, Napoleon Bonaparte and Adolf Hitler. This seems fitting now that the US president has just emerged from a battle that appears to have brought about his downfall.
Tuesday's US midterm elections were a powerful, devastating, and extinction-level event rolled into one. Red Republican strongholds once considered safe fell like dominoes. Democrats won Senate seats for the first time in Kansas since 1932, in Texas since 1988, and in South Carolina since 1998.
The House of Representatives and Senate had switched from one party to the other in the same midterm only three times since World War II - in 1946, 1994 and 2006 - but now it has happened again, ensuring that the US Congress is a bulwark against Trump's expansion of executive power.
The president, who immediately pointed out that he was not on the ballot Tuesday, is the architect of this poor showing. In fact, after spending months repeatedly urging voters to pretend he was on the ballot, he could hardly have done more to sabotage his own party. He won the presidency in 2024 promising to lower prices and end foreign wars; his tariffs added to the pressure on prices, and his vicious attack on Iran pushed them even higher.
Then there was Trump's wild and bizarre campaign, which consisted of long, vague speeches about architectural projects, outbursts of vicious Islamophobia, and meditations on the "ass" of a Republican senator from Ohio. It culminated in the Lincoln Memorial's Reflecting Pool, where he declared victory in the war on algae.
The voters said: enough is enough.
According to Associated Press polls, voters said the cost of living and government corruption were their top two concerns. Trump, who claimed to be an economic populist, had boasted about his personal wealth and his lavish ballroom even as people struggled to get food. It was too much for some in his supposedly rock-solid base.
How will Trump cope with this new political reality? Is this the beginning of the end?
Starting in January, Democrats will have the power to block legislation, launch investigations into the Trump administration, and block his judicial and cabinet appointments. Life could suddenly become unpleasant for people like Pete Hegseth, the defense secretary, or big tech leaders like Elon Musk. Democrats may even consider impeaching Trump for a third time.
This potentially leaves the president under siege - a diminished figure mired in the Washington blockade and reduced to the use of a veto pen, which he had begun using as early as Tuesday evening.
However, it must be said that Trump has paid little attention to Congress during his first two years in office, other than passing his Big and Beautiful Tax and Spending Act. He has acted unilaterally on tariffs and military strikes on Venezuela and Iran. Like his predecessors, he will likely continue to pursue foreign policy as a legacy project, an alarming prospect for the world.
He will also continue with his other obsession: giving Washington a makeover with a new White House ballroom, a triumphal arch, and more gold. Congress may take the view that this is a relatively harmless activity to keep him busy compared to the chaos he could cause elsewhere.
More threatening to Trump than any Democratic investigation is the relentless march of time. The race to succeed him in 2028 begins now.
This president is psychologically unprepared to deal with the prospect of national attention, leaving him to focus on JD Vance, Marco Rubio, and other potential candidates.
This shift could also undermine Trump’s cult-like dominance of the Republican Party and the MAGA movement. He has shaped the party in his image for a decade, and that won’t be easily reversed. But members of Congress, sifting through Tuesday’s wreckage, may conclude that Trump is a creature of the past — and their survival depends on placing the right bets on the future.
Every swing of the electoral pendulum will be interpreted. Trump's two presidential victories were seen as a fundamental change in America, even though he never reached 50% of the national popular vote. His defeat in 2020 was hailed as the end of the Trump era, only for him to rise from the political dead 4 years later.
Anyone redeclaring the end of that era after Tuesday's landslide victory should remember that the president is not yet halfway through his second term and that his identity will relish the opportunity to fight against Democrats.
A wounded Trump, who thinks he has nothing to lose over the next two years, may turn out to be the most reckless and dangerous of all.