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Lured by Putin, Xi and Trump, Europe's "master of manipulation" faces big test

2026-09-11 18:09:27Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Lured by Putin, Xi and Trump, Europe's "master of manipulation"
Putin and Vucic

Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić has announced that the country will hold early parliamentary elections on October 25, as he seeks to tighten control over the political scene after nearly two years of student-led protests. Vučić cannot run for president again, but has declared his intention to run for prime minister. His Progressive Party nominated him on Saturday, paving the way for a return to his authority as the protests have challenged his regime like never before.

For more than 14 years, Vučić has dominated Serbia's political scene, pursuing a careful balancing strategy between the European Union, Russia, China and the United States. He has maintained close relations with Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, while at the same time seeking the support of Donald Trump and continuing negotiations for Serbia's membership in the EU.

However, the upcoming elections are expected to be the toughest test of his rule. Serbia has been gripped by student-led protests for nearly two years, which began after the collapse of a railway station shelter in Novi Sad in November 2024, killing 16 people. The demonstrations later expanded into a movement against corruption, restrictions on media freedom and authoritarian rule.

According to reports, the phones of some protest leaders have been targeted by the Pegasus wiretapping program, adding to the accusations against the authorities. Announcing the elections, Vučić acknowledged that the country had gone through “great turbulence.”

The decision came just days after Ratko Mladić's funeral in Belgrade, which was attended by thousands of people. Although Vučić was not present, several ministers from his government attended the ceremony. The European Union had warned that a state ceremony for a person convicted of war crimes was incompatible with Serbia's status as a candidate country. The funeral was not officially declared a state one, but was practically organized as such.

The event once again highlighted Vučić's ability to simultaneously please his nationalist base and avoid a direct clash with Brussels. During the 1990s, he was part of an ultranationalist force that supported Bosnian Serb troops, but later reinvented himself politically as a pro-European conservative and founded the Serbian Progressive Party.

After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Serbia refused to join European sanctions against Moscow and continued to maintain close relations with Russia. In May, Vučić attended the Victory Day parade in Moscow, alongside Putin and Xi Jinping. However, just two months later, the European Commission recommended opening additional chapters in Serbia's accession negotiations.

The EU remains Belgrade's main trading partner and sees the integration of the Western Balkans as important for limiting Russian influence. Brussels also has an interest in Serbia's lithium reserves, needed for the production of batteries and green technologies. However, the EU's economic power has not translated into sufficient influence over Vučić's government.

Meanwhile, the Serbian president has also sought rapprochement with Donald Trump. Although Washington has put pressure on Belgrade over its dependence on Russian oil, Vučić has promised a grand reception for the US president if he visits Serbia. The project to build a “Trump Tower” in Belgrade was canceled by Jared Kushner after strong protests.

At the same time, Serbia has deepened cooperation with China. Chinese investment has increased significantly, and during his visit to Beijing, Vučić received from Xi Jinping the “Medal of Friendship”, China’s highest honor for a foreign citizen. China is now Serbia’s second-largest trading partner after the EU and has offered assistance in building the country’s first nuclear power plant.

But in the October elections, Vučić will not be able to stand above the parties. The coalition led by the Serbian Progressive Party faces a challenge from the "Student List", the political wing of the protests, which aims to run figures previously uninvolved in politics.

Analysts estimate that the student opposition could repeat a scenario similar to that of Hungary, where a challenger without media support and without the resources of power achieved a convincing victory. Vučić accepted the elections after more than 492 days of pressure from students, convinced that he was still strong enough to defeat them.

If he wins and returns as prime minister, Vučić could install a trusted ally in the presidency and maintain political control of the country. If he loses, the election could end his 14-year reign in power and his strategy of maneuvering between Moscow, Beijing, Washington and Brussels.


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