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Why the referendum in Iceland will affect Albania and Montenegro's path to the EU

2026-08-28 23:55:15Politikë SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Why the referendum in Iceland will affect Albania and Montenegro's path to
Reykjavik

If Icelanders vote in favor of resuming European Union (EU) membership talks this weekend, it will also change the ranking of leading countries in the bloc's membership process.

Iceland stands out as a very specific country, as it is already largely integrated into the EU and is part of many European policies. It is a member of the European Economic Area and the Schengen Area.

Unlike other traditional candidate countries, Iceland does not need to radically change its legal, judicial, or political system to meet the basic requirements of the EU.

This means that a return of Iceland to the membership process would directly affect the two countries that are now seen as leaders in the integration process: Albania and Montenegro, which hold the first and second places, respectively, on the list.

These two countries see the referendum as another sign of how attractive the European Union is to countries that are not part of it.

Radio Free Europe (RFE/RL) interlocutors from Tirana and Podgorica consider that holding this referendum proves that the European project continues to be attractive and is strategically important for the countries of the continent.

Icelandic citizens will go to the polls on August 29 in a referendum to decide whether they want the country to resume membership negotiations in the 27-nation bloc.

The outcome of the referendum is highly uncertain. The latest polls show Icelandic voters are extremely divided, almost on a razor's edge, while the resumption of talks is supported by a narrow and shrinking majority.

The vote is advisory in nature and relates exclusively to the reopening of negotiations, and not to the final decision on EU membership.

What do they say in Tirana and Podgorica?

Albania and Montenegro, which are deep into the process of membership negotiations, view the referendum in the Nordic island state between Europe and the North Atlantic positively.

Albania's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ferit Hoxha, says that the referendum is considered a sovereign and democratic expression of the will of Icelandic citizens to determine their country's relationship with the European Union.

"Every European country has the right to choose its own path towards European integration. From our perspective, the fact that a country with a high level of development, consolidated institutions and deep economic integration with Europe is returning to this issue and is once again considering further rapprochement with the European Union proves that the European project continues to remain attractive, credible and strategic for the countries of the continent," Hoxha tells Radio Free Europe.

Maida Gorcevic, Minister of European Affairs of Montenegro, says that Podgorica welcomes every step that makes Europe more united and stronger and that the referendum in Iceland is being followed closely, respecting the decision of the Icelandic citizens.

"It is in Montenegro's interest for the European Union to be strong and stable, and I believe that the enlargement policy contributes precisely to this. Therefore, we welcome every new step towards enlargement and support the European aspirations of countries that share with Montenegro the commitment to achieving European standards and values ​​and belonging to the European family," Gorcevic told REL.

Montenegro continues to be the first on the path to the EU, with 18 out of a total of 33 negotiation chapters closed.

Iceland, which began accession negotiations in 2010 and suspended them in 2013, has 11 provisionally closed negotiation chapters.

"Montenegro is today the most advanced candidate country and is determined to complete its part of the work and become the 28th member of the European Union. But we have never seen the European path as a competition in which the progress of one country comes at the expense of another," emphasizes Gorcevic.

Albania, in the event of a positive vote in the referendum, would automatically lose second place on the list of leading countries, as Iceland would compete with Montenegro, with a real opportunity to surpass this country, being more prepared for membership than any other candidate country.

"We do not see the enlargement process as a zero-sum game, where one country's progress means another country's loss. On the contrary, a positive result in Iceland could create new political momentum at the European level for the debate on enlargement and strengthen the conviction that the European Union remains the most successful political, economic and geopolitical project on the continent," says the Albanian chief diplomat, Hoxha.

He emphasizes that the greater the political consensus in Europe in favor of enlargement, the more positive the political environment becomes for all candidate countries that have seriously invested in this process, including Albania.

Iceland, Montenegro and Albania and the disproportion with the EU budget

Iceland, on the one hand, and Montenegro and Albania, on the other, would have an almost opposite relationship to the EU budget.

If Iceland were to join the EU, it would be the third richest member state in terms of per capita income and would be a net contributor to the European Union budget.

The membership of this country would be easily absorbed by the EU, as it is a small country in terms of population, with almost 60 percent fewer inhabitants than Montenegro.

The fundamental difference between these countries lies in their relationship with the European budget. Iceland, as one of the wealthiest European countries, would most likely be a net contributor to the EU budget, while Montenegro would be a net beneficiary.

Much poorer, but six times larger than Iceland, Albania would also be a net beneficiary of EU funds.

The net beneficiary of the EU budget receives more funds than it contributes to it, while the net contributor pays more than it receives from it.

In general, richer countries with higher gross domestic product contribute more to the EU budget, while poorer countries benefit more.

This makes Iceland an unusual candidate country, as its membership would mean the enlargement of the EU with a relatively wealthy country, and not just a new country that would be a major beneficiary of European funds.

Precisely for this reason, Iceland's membership would constitute a specific case in relation to the current EU enlargement to the Western Balkans: while the membership of Albania and Montenegro would constitute mainly a financial benefit for these countries, Iceland could represent a financial contribution to the Union.

Why is this referendum important for the EU and the region?

A positive referendum result, according to European officials, would constitute an incentive for current candidate countries for EU membership and would show that enlargement is still possible.

An eventual "yes" in Iceland on August 29 would most likely lead to this country joining Montenegro in the accession process.

Albania, which is considered one of the leading countries, but is not in the group with Montenegro, would continue this process alone.

Tirana says that a positive result of the referendum in Iceland, together with Montenegro's continued progress towards membership, constitutes clear evidence that the current enlargement process is genuine, credible and tangible.

"These developments should not be seen as a differentiation between candidate countries, but as a confirmation that the European Union is seriously investing in its future security, stability and strength," says chief diplomat Hoxha.

The special relationship between Iceland and the EU

Iceland officially applied for membership in the European Union in 2009, following the severe collapse of its banking system.

Accession negotiations were opened in July 2010. 27 negotiating chapters were opened and 11 of them were provisionally closed. The new Eurosceptic coalition government suspended negotiations in December 2013.

Iceland has never withdrawn its application for EU membership, and in 2015 it requested to no longer be considered a candidate country.

If Icelandic citizens vote to continue the negotiations, the process will continue where it left off. Closed chapters will not be reopened, while work will continue on closing the remaining negotiating chapters.

This is why the European Commissioner for Enlargement considers that, in the event of a positive referendum result, Iceland could complete the negotiation process with the EU in a very short time.

"As a country that is already part of the European Common Market, Iceland can complete its membership negotiations within one to two years," assessed Marta Kos on August 25, in her speech at the Conference of Ambassadors, Consuls General, Consuls and Military Attachés in Zagreb.

However, even if negotiations are completed in record time, full EU membership will not happen overnight.

This requires changes to the Constitution, in order to enable the transfer of some of the sovereign powers.

According to the rules in force in Iceland, the constitutional amendment must first be approved by Parliament, then general elections are held and, after that, the same text of the amendment must be approved again by the newly elected parliament./ REL


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