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Serbia's "two-chair policy" now needs to be reoriented

2022-05-04 07:59:28Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Serbia's "two-chair policy" now needs to be reoriented
Alexander Vuçiç

Since Russia's attack on Ukraine, the tone towards Moscow has changed in Belgrade as well. Serbia needs to make a fundamental reorientation.

Serbia is traditionally considered Russia's closest ally in Europe. This small country also boasts excellent relations with China, which has made possible many infrastructure projects in this country, such as the expansion of railways, roads and power plants. Serbia is also a candidate for EU membership. This vague policy of the Western Balkan country, which in the West is called the "two-chair policy" and is based on several alliances, has a long tradition.

Former President and current opposition politician Boris Tadic pursued a policy he described as a "four-pillar foreign policy": In addition to Russia, China and the EU, Serbia under his leadership (2004-2012) also relied on US as a fourth partner. This policy of fluctuations, often criticized by Brussels and Berlin, may now end. Following Russia's aggression in Ukraine, Serbia is at a crossroads: the Belgrade government must decide which way the country will go in the future.

"Knife in the back"

So far, the Serbian tabloid media, which are considered the megaphone of the government, have made a clear picture: Russia and China were friends, evil threatens the West. But last week, it was precisely these media outlets that made a surprising turn.

"World politics on our backs", was the headline of the Informer newspaper. While the newspaper "Kurir" writes: "Naked interest. "Putin defends the interests of Russia (…) and ignores the position of Serbia." "Putin has forgotten the Serbs and Kosovo because of his war", was the headline of the newspaper "Blic" and "Srpski Telegraf" was even clearer: "Putin puts the knife in the back of the Serbs".

What actually happened? Russian President Vladimir Putin justified his claims to Crimea and eastern Ukraine by saying that the West had separated the present-day Republic of Kosovo from the Serbian state and recognized it under international law. In simple words: you separated Kosovo from Serbia, we are doing the same with Crimea and eastern Ukraine. Conversely, in his logic, this means that Kosovo can be as independent as the Ukrainian territories claimed by Russia.

Evidence of a new positioning

After their visit to Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic on April 20, 2022, US senators reported that he wanted to reorient his country's politics within two months. Vuiqiiq also announced a speech to the Serbian people next Friday (May 6, 2022), in which he will take stock of the situation and re-evaluate the international situation in Serbia.

In recent weeks, pressure on Belgrade has increased. It was said almost daily from Washington and Brussels that if Serbia were to become part of the EU, then it should follow the line of foreign policy of the European Union. Harsh criticism of Chinese arms supplies to Serbia has also recently come from the EU Parliament. Belgrade does not need this surface-to-air missile system at all, because it is geographically surrounded only by NATO and EU countries. Or does the country have completely different plans, they asked.

In March 2022, Interior Minister Aleksandar Vulin, who has made a name for himself as a kind of spokesman for President Vucic, said: Serbia must stop any further rapprochement with the EU and become politically neutral. This neutrality and this self-confidence, which is inversely proportional to the economic power of Serbia, is nurtured by Yugoslav history and the communist founder of this state, Josip Broz Tito.

Vuçiçi under pressure

The head of state Vuiqiiq sees his position threatened by social unrest in the country, analyze those few independent media in Serbia, which are critical of the government. They see it as unusual that Vucic has publicly opposed his Finance Minister, Sinisa Mali, because he wanted to make some changes in the farmers 'markets, despite several days of traders' demonstrations.

Meanwhile, the population has to cope with massive increases in food and fuel prices. Serbian pensioners, who are waiting for Vucic to ensure their very modest standard of living, have backed Vucic after immediate state aid.

Endangered economy?

Late last week, the well-known Belgrade newspaper Vecernje Novosti, always at the forefront of Vucic's defense in anti-Western policy, published a lengthy policy article on the situation in Serbia. Western pressure "seriously threatens the Serbian economy", according to the horror scenario drafted by the newspaper.

Brussels is reportedly considering suspending financial aid, completing further investments as well as dismantling and withdrawing those that have already been made. But things could get much worse, the paper analyzes: It could be the end of visa-free travel to the EU, which has been possible since 2009. The cessation of massive EU pre-accession aid, IPA, could life is inevitable, as can the status of a candidate for EU membership be revoked.

Conspiracy theories

Novosti classifies this threat scenario as part of a larger conspiracy theory: The West is acting together with its neighbors in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Croatia against President Vucic.

And further: The current pressure on Serbia is the continuation of the destruction of Yugoslavia and NATO bombing during the Kosovo war in 1999, with the aim of "giving the Albanians a part of our territory", this newspaper writes.

But Serbia, in fact, is completely dependent on the West. To date, Brussels has provided the country of 7 million with about four billion euros in development aid. According to Belgrade, 24,000 Serbian companies with almost 900,000 employees make a living from doing business with the EU.

Serbian companies sell two-thirds of their exports to EU countries. Critical domestic commentators expect Vucic not to risk severing these strong ties so as not to put himself in danger. He will therefore turn his back on Russia and turn clearly to the West. / DW


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