
The final results of Israel's elections did not produce a majority capable of forming a government. Netanyahu's Likud party and its allies secured 53 seats, out of the 64 they had won in 2022. Gadi Eisenkot's opposition bloc took 48, while the two Arab parties achieved their highest result, with 19 seats.
This means that neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot can govern with their current allies alone. To reach the 61-seat threshold, they will need to secure support from outside their respective blocs.
Who will try to form the government?
The results will be officially submitted to President Isaac Herzog on November 4. After consultations with party leaders, he will task the candidate he believes has the best chance of securing a majority with forming a government. So in short, it is up to the President to decide who to give the first chance to.
Eisenkot may take the opportunity first. However, the parties' recommendations during consultations with the president will be decisive, not just the number of mandates each bloc has.
Scenarios
One scenario is for the opposition to secure the support of Arab parties. Together, they would have 67 seats, but the rapprochement is politically difficult for one simple reason. Many Jewish parties oppose such cooperation. Eisenkot has stated that none of the Arab parties meet his conditions for an alliance.
The other option is a unity government between Netanyahu and Eisenkot's forces. But that would require agreement between the two rivals who waged a bitter campaign against each other.
Both may also try to attract parties or MPs from the opposing camp to fill the majority.
How long can negotiations last?
The candidate appointed by the president has 28 days to form a government and can request an additional 14 days. If he fails, the process can be passed to other candidates. If no one secures a majority, the country goes to new elections.
Herzog has called for everything to be done to avoid another vote. However, negotiations could take weeks or months.
Who benefits from the stalemate?
Netanyahu remains the acting prime minister until a new government is formed. Therefore, according to analysts, the delay in negotiations gives him the opportunity to stay in power even without securing a new majority.
The elections showed a weakening of his bloc, but did not give the opposition the votes needed to replace him. The outcome will now depend on agreements between the parties, with the risk of Israel returning to the deadlock of 2019-2022, when five elections were held.
Why were these elections so important?
The election was seen as a referendum on Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, and his government, the most radical right-wing in the country's history. It was also the first since the Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023, that sparked the devastating war in Gaza.
Turnout was the highest since 1999. However, public anger at Netanyahu's refusal to take responsibility for failing to prevent the attack did not translate into a clear opposition majority.
The result weakened his bloc, but did not give his opponents the mandates needed to remove him from power.