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Russia heading for biggest mobilization since 2022

2026-08-13 23:15:11Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Russia heading for biggest mobilization since 2022
Russia heading for biggest mobilization since 2022

Russia is preparing for a new wave of mobilization that could involve up to 500,000 people and begin immediately after the State Duma elections on September 21, according to Ukrainian intelligence information.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated, referring to a report by the Defense Intelligence Agency of Ukraine (GUR), that the preparations are also supported by internal Russian documents. The mobilization is expected to begin in early October.

According to the Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation, up to 500,000 people could be mobilized. Some could be sent to the eastern front within two weeks to fill immediate shortages, while others could undergo a month of training.

The main reason is related to the difficulties of the Russian contract recruitment system. In 2025, Russia signed 10% fewer contracts than a year earlier, while in the first quarter of 2026 the number fell by 20% compared to the same period a year earlier.

By spring, the number of volunteers willing to sign contracts had fallen by about a third. From 1,500-1,700 contracts a day, recruiters were reaching only 800-1,200. For the first time since the start of the full-scale invasion, the number of Russian forces fighting in Ukraine stopped growing.

According to the Ukrainian General Staff, Russia suffered about 196,700 personnel losses during the first half of 2026. This means that the number of new contract soldiers has almost equaled the number of losses.

Vladimir Putin believes that the mobilization of 300,000 to 500,000 additional troops could change the course of the war and give a new impetus to the Russian offensive, according to Ukrainian media.

The process is expected to begin after the September elections, a timeframe that suggests the Kremlin continues to consider mass mobilization politically dangerous.

In July, the authorized size of the Russian Armed Forces increased to 2.4 million people, of whom 1.5 million were active servicemen. Before the war, the Russian army had an authorized strength of about 1.9 million people.


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