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Why does India want peace in Ukraine – and China doesn't?

2026-09-18 19:25:57Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA NINA L. KHRUSHCHEVA

Why does India want peace in Ukraine – and China doesn't?

At first glance, India and China appear to hold nearly identical positions on the war in Ukraine: they maintain close ties with the Kremlin, buy Russian oil, and refuse to join the West's campaign to isolate Russia. But if you look deeper, a fundamental difference emerges: while India wants the war to end, China has no problem allowing the fighting to continue. These positions have less to do with how China and India feel about Russia, and more to do with how they feel about each other.

For decades, Russia has been one of the few great powers that India could rely on to balance China. The bilateral relationship served as a buffer and a means of security, ensuring that instead of being squeezed by its larger neighbor, India retained some geopolitical room for maneuver. But this system cannot work if Russia becomes depleted and dependent on China. And that is precisely the result of the war in Ukraine.

Following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia faced unprecedented Western sanctions, which cut off its access to Western goods and markets. As Europe, once its largest source of energy demand, largely stopped buying Russian oil and gas, China took Europe’s place as the main buyer of Russian energy, benefiting from the discounted prices. China also became Russia’s largest trading partner and an increasingly important source of machinery, electronics, and industrial goods that Russia could no longer buy from the West.

This outcome is a stark contrast to the “borderless” partnership of equals that Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin promoted shortly before the war began. Russia is becoming a second-rate partner to China, which suits Xi—and explains why he is in no hurry to force Putin to negotiate with Ukraine. While Xi speaks rhetorically of a “political solution,” he avoids exerting any public pressure on Putin to seek peace.

The calculation is not mysterious. A protracted war keeps Russia cornered, and a cornered Russia has fewer options—which means more leverage for China. And, as the stalled talks on the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline show, China is not afraid to use that leverage to advance its own interests.

Russia is keen to build the pipeline, which would transport natural gas from its Yamal Peninsula in the Arctic through Mongolia to northern China. Having lost the European gas market, Russia needs a new long-term outlet for its vast gas reserves. But China does not share the Kremlin’s sense of urgency. Negotiations have dragged on for years, due to disagreements over price, volume and delivery terms.

Recent reports suggest that China is seeking rates of around $50 per thousand cubic meters—well below the roughly $250 the Kremlin wants, and close to Russia’s heavily subsidized domestic gas price. China seems to think that Russia will eventually have to agree. What other option does it have?

The impact extends beyond gas. The longer the war drags on, the more Russia will have to orient its economy toward China, and the more opportunities China will have to advance its economic and strategic interests. China gains resources, a captured market, technological leverage, and political influence. All Russia gains is an opportunity to offset some of the economic damage from the break with the West, while continuing to pour its limited resources into a war of attrition of its own making.

This is, in a sense, a worst-case scenario for India: its Russian partner, once a strategic asset, has been significantly weakened, and its Chinese antagonist has been strengthened and emboldened. The more influence China amasses over the Kremlin, the worse India’s regional position becomes.

It’s no wonder that India has been constantly pushing the Kremlin toward peace. Last week in India, ahead of this year’s BRICS summit, Prime Minister Narendra Modi gifted Putin a 2,000-year-old Indian treatise on poetry and philosophy, the Tirukkuṟaḷ, translated into Russian, noting that the book is about “compassion and leadership.” It was a significant gift, especially after Modi’s plea last month at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit for the world to move from “endless war” to “the end of war.” While Modi’s calls for an end to the war in Ukraine often emphasize the humanitarian aspect—“Every day that the war continues, humanity takes a step backward”—maintaining the regional balance of power is clearly a key factor.

This requires a Russia that exists as an independent center of power, while China wants a Russia that is strong enough to be useful but weak enough to remain dependent. This is not a dispute over Russia, but more a contest over which regional order in Asia will dominate: one with a more stable balance of power or one dominated by China.

Project Syndicate


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