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How the Trump-Xi summit could shape the new world order for years to come

2026-05-12 20:39:40Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
How the Trump-Xi summit could shape the new world order for years to come
Trump-Xi

By Anthony Zurcher and Laura Bicker – BBC

Security around Tiananmen Square in Beijing has been heightened for days, with rumors circulating on social media of a parade or a grand ceremony. China appears determined to give President Donald Trump a spectacular welcome.

The visit will include official talks, a banquet and a stop at the Temple of Heaven, where emperors once prayed for good harvests. But beyond the symbolism, both Trump and Xi Jinping hope the meeting will yield concrete results. The summit between the world's two most powerful leaders could be one of the most important in recent years.

For months, US-China relations have not been Trump's top priority. His focus has been on the war with Iran, military operations in the Western Hemisphere and domestic problems. That's changing now. Global trade, Taiwan and the race for cutting-edge technologies are on the table.

For Xi, the trade war with the US and the conflict with Iran are both economic problems and political opportunities. This visit could lay the groundwork for either new cooperation or deeper conflict in the years to come.

China as a silent mediator for Iran

China is cautiously trying to enter the role of mediator as the war with Iran enters its third month. Beijing, along with Pakistan, has been involved in efforts to mediate in the US-Israeli conflict against Iran.

In March, China and Pakistan presented a five-point plan for a ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Behind the scenes, Chinese officials have been carefully nudging the Iranians to the negotiating table.

China has a clear interest in seeing this war end. Its economy is slowing, unemployment has risen, and high oil prices are weighing on its industry. Petrochemical products, from textiles to plastics, have become significantly more expensive. Although China has large oil reserves and is more protected thanks to its advantage in renewable energy and electric cars, the conflict is adding pressure to an economy that relies heavily on exports.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's visit to Beijing last week was a clear signal of China's perceived influence in the Middle East. The US is also closely watching this role. Marco Rubio has openly said he hopes China will tell Iran that it is isolating itself globally.

For Beijing, intervening to help the US with Iran would not be free. China would demand something in return.

The future of Taiwan

The Trump administration has given mixed signals about Taiwan.

On the one hand, the US announced an $11 billion arms deal with Taiwan late last year, angering Beijing. On the other hand, Trump has signaled that he is not willing to unconditionally guarantee the island's defense.

He has said that Xi considers Taiwan part of China and that “it belongs to him.” Trump has also accused Taiwan of not paying enough for US defense and has even hit it with tariffs, accusing it of “stealing” the US chip industry.

Rubio has warned that Taiwan will be a key topic in the talks, but the goal is to avoid a new crisis in the Indo-Pacific. China, on the other hand, has made it clear that Taiwan is an absolute priority. Foreign Minister Wang Yi said last week that he hopes the US will make “the right choices.”

Beijing has been ramping up military pressure around the island, with warships and aircraft almost daily. Some analysts think China may want a stronger statement from the US, not simply that it “does not support Taiwan independence” but that it “opposes Taiwan independence.”

However, not all experts believe that Xi will push the issue too hard, as he knows that Trump could change his stance very quickly.

Trade talks

For much of 2025, the US and China appeared to be on the brink of a new trade war. Trump repeatedly raised and lowered tariffs on China, sometimes reaching over 100%.

China retaliated by restricting exports of rare earth minerals and reducing purchases of American agricultural products, hitting farmers in key states for Trump.

Tensions eased somewhat after the Trump-Xi summit in South Korea last October. A US Supreme Court ruling in February that limited Trump's power to impose tariffs unilaterally also helped to stem the escalation.

But at the Beijing summit, trade will once again take center stage. Trump will demand more Chinese purchases of American agricultural products. China, for its part, will demand that the U.S. drop a new trade investigation that could give Trump grounds to reimpose high tariffs.

Trump is also expected to be accompanied by major American business leaders, including Nvidia, Apple, Exxon and Boeing.

For Xi, this meeting must go well because China needs global stability. Even though it is now the main trading partner of more than 120 countries, Beijing knows it cannot act as if it has everything under control in the face of Trump.

The future of artificial intelligence

China has entered the race to control the future of artificial intelligence and robotics. Xi calls these “new productive forces” and sees them as engines of new economic growth.

In the US, many policymakers believe that China is trying to appropriate American technology to power its own industry. This has led to restrictions on the export of cutting-edge chips and other key technologies, despite opposition from American companies themselves.

This clash is also clearly evident in the race for AI, perhaps the most strategic field of our time. The US has accused Chinese companies like DeepSeek of stealing American AI designs. China, for its part, has blocked the movement of American companies on its territory.

But the real problem isn't just who copies whom. The main race is who will have the talent, chips, and infrastructure to build the next generation of artificial intelligence.

China has made significant progress in building robots and physical technology, but for their "brains" it needs high-end chips, and these come mainly from the US.

This is where Beijing’s strongest lever comes in: rare earths. China processes about 90% of the world’s rare earths, essential for phones, electric cars, wind turbines and aircraft engines. In this sense, for the US, Chinese rare earths are almost a new “Hormuz”: Beijing can slow or stop supply at will.

This opens up the possibility of a bargain: the US could seek rare minerals, while China could seek advanced chips.

A short visit, but with great consequences

For all these big topics, Trump's visit to Beijing will be brief. The main meetings are scheduled for Thursday and Friday. There may not be time for big deals.

But even a brief meeting could determine the direction of negotiations and relations between the two superpowers for years to come.

In the end, this summit is not just a ceremonial visit to Beijing. It is a showdown for the world's economic, technological, and strategic order. Trump and Xi may talk about stability, but behind them lie four issues that will define the decade: Iran, Taiwan, trade, and artificial intelligence.


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