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The referendum shakes the Meloni government, will there be early elections?

2026-03-24 23:03:10Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
The referendum shakes the Meloni government, will there be early elections?
Giorgia Meloni

Giorgia Meloni's defeat in a referendum on justice reform has plunged the Italian leader into the most difficult phase of her leadership, with her authority weakened, her reform program shattered and no easy way to regain the initiative.

Her right-wing coalition suffered a crushing defeat in the March 22-23 vote, shattering the aura of political invulnerability she had built up since taking office in 2022. After the results came in, Meloni made it clear that she had no plans to step down, but none of her options look attractive, according to political analysts.

Governing as if nothing had changed could leave her as an ineffective prime minister, with the weak economy under increased pressure and her closeness to US President Donald Trump considered by polls to be a growing risk.

An alternative could be to try to reshape electoral law to increase her chances of winning the next general election, scheduled for 2027, but this could expose her to accusations of manipulating the rules for political interests.

Another option could be to risk holding a snap vote this spring, before the impact of the war in Iran hits Italy's fragile economy, hoping to catch the fragmented center-left opposition off guard.

"It is clear that what is at stake is the end of the legislature," said Nicola Lupo, director of the Center for Parliamentary Studies at Rome's Luiss University.

Despite the damage, the referendum was not a blanket rejection of Meloni, with 37% of those who voted "No" saying she should remain in office. "This was not a victory for the opposition, but a victory for the judicial system," said Massimiliano Panarari, a political analyst at the University of Modena and Reggio Emilia.

The center-left opposition hailed Monday's result as evidence that the political cycle was turning in its favor, but its two main components, the Democratic Party and the 5-Star Movement, remain deeply divided on key issues, including foreign policy.

These divisions could push Meloni to resign and call for early elections, Lupo said, adding that the government had pushed for a snap referendum in March to have the possibility of a vote before the summer.

"Melon knows that the next budget will not allow for generous spending, so he may say that it would be better to go to the polls now and not give the opposition time to organize," he said.

Meanwhile, Meloni's ties to Trump and the weak economy have been seen as important factors that negatively affected the referendum vote. Polls have confirmed that a large proportion of voters were motivated by broader political and economic concerns, rather than the technical details of judicial reform. "We have seen a sudden increase in the number of those who would vote," said Antonio Noto, a pollster. After losing the referendum, Meloni could risk being left without the opportunity to implement important reforms for years to come.


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