In all the accounts following the phone call between European leaders and Donald Trump, one phrase is mentioned: “German Chancellor Friedrich Merz was shocked.” What happened in that meeting, which was also attended by Giorgia Meloni, Emmanuel Macron, Donald Tusk and Keir Starmer and which followed the two-hour phone call between Trump and Putin, and how the discussion actually went, is known only to the leaders.
But the conclusions that Germany has drawn are clear: Putin will not stop the fighting and Trump will not support new sanctions, the ones that Merz had demanded in Kiev together with Zelensky, if the Kremlin did not accept peace negotiations. The phone call between the White House and the Kremlin was immediately called in Berlin as “the appearance of Trump’s face.” In reality (although not formally), Trump is ready to abandon Ukraine.
The Wall Street Journal was the first to report this, and the German press confirmed it shortly after. Trump reportedly told the Europeans that Putin doesn’t want to end the war because he feels confident of victory. A senior German official who was present during the call (or who has read the transcripts) told Politico: “It seems like Putin needs more time to fight and Trump is helping him get that.”
At this point, there has been a shift in German policy. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said in an interview with FAZ that “Putin does not want peace yet.” Friedrich Merz’s rhetoric has also changed in a matter of days: “We have no illusions. There will be no quick solution,” he said in Vilnius, where he visited the 45th Armored Brigade, the first to be stationed outside German territory. “It is a process that has just begun,” says the chancellor, “which could take weeks, maybe even months.”
Friedrich Merz is learning what it means to give ultimatums and make promises as head of government, without being able to keep them. The 18 European sanctions announced were blocked by Trump and the new German Chancellor finds himself in a difficult position.
On the other hand, there is maximum seriousness about the German commitment. “We are ready to do more, if necessary. More pressure on Russia and more aid for Ukraine. Financing will not be a problem,” Merz said. Pistorius also hypothesized the return of compulsory military service, while aiming to increase the number of army personnel. “If the time comes when we have a greater capacity than voluntary registrations, then we can decide to continue in a mandatory manner,” he said.
The predictions for what is happening on the ground in Ukraine are bleak. A respected military expert, Nico Lange, former CDU Undersecretary of Defense, is convinced that Putin “never asked for a ceasefire, but used this time only to create new military opportunities” and that the ground offensive has already begun. In addition to the 4 annexed territories, Moscow “will try to advance into three more regions, Sumy, Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk, to create new problems for the negotiations”. This makes 7 disputed regions, not 4.
However, the most important thing for Germans and Europeans is to keep the Americans hanging on. From the first days in office, Merz has followed a soft approach, trying a bit to copy that of the British Starmer, to anticipate possible US demands and “say thank you”. He wants to go to the White House, where he will probably be expected in about 10 days. But the phone call about Ukraine froze him, “shocked” him, and this happened long before the 50% tariffs on EU products.
It is known in NATO circles that American aid should last until the summer, and then, if the Republicans in the Senate do not rebel, it will be the turn of Europe, and above all of Germany. As long as the United States continues to share intelligence and support the Starlink satellites, Europe should be able to support Ukraine. Of course, with Trump anything is possible, even if after turning his back on Ukraine, he makes an anti-Kremlin pirouette. But, as a German diplomat says, what we are seeing now was the worst-case scenario: “and unfortunately it seems to be coming true.”/ Corriere della Sera