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What does Putin have in mind? Difficult answer for nuclear analysts

2022-10-04 20:18:56Fokus SHKRUAR NGA ASSOCIATED PRESS
What does Putin have in mind? Difficult answer for nuclear analysts
Vladimir Putin

John Leicester - Associated Press

Will Russian President Vladimir Putin pull the trigger?

There is no more pressing and difficult question for Kremlin watchers trying to figure out whether the Russian leader's threats are just a bluff.

For now, analysts suggest that the risk of President Putin deploying the world's largest nuclear arsenal appears to be low. The CIA says it has seen no signs of an imminent nuclear attack by Russia.

However, his vows to use "all available means" to defend Russia while attacking Ukraine are being taken very seriously. And the claim he made Friday that the United States "set the precedent" by dropping nuclear bombs during World War II further heightened nuclear risk.

The White House has warned of "catastrophic consequences for Russia" if President Putin decides to use the nuclear option.

But it is not known if this will stop President Putin. Nervous Kremlin watchers admit they cannot be sure what he has in mind, or even whether he is rational and well-informed.

The former KGB agent has demonstrated a willingness to undertake risky actions and tactics. It is difficult even for Western intelligence agencies, despite the satellites at their disposal, to conclude whether President Putin is bluffing or really intends to break the nuclear taboo.

What does Putin have in mind? Difficult answer for nuclear analysts
A Russian intercontinental ballistic missile Topol M

"The American intelligence community has not seen any practical steps, that it is approaching the moment of deployment, or that there is an imminent danger, of the use of nuclear weapons," CIA Director William Burns said in an interview. for the CBS channel.

"What we need to do is take it very seriously and look for signs of real preparations," Mr Burns said.

What causes confusion for Kremlin watchers is that it is not clear how the use of nuclear force can help to recover Russia's military losses in Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces are not using tanks concentrated in large formations to retake territory, and fighting sometimes takes place over small territories, such as villages. So what target could Russian nuclear forces target to have a winning effect?

"Nuclear weapons are not a magic wand," says Andrey Baklitskiy, with the UN Institute for Disarmament Studies, which specializes in nuclear risks. "They're not something you just throw in to solve all the problems you have."

Analysts hope the taboo on the use of nuclear weapons will serve as a deterrent. The horrific scale of human suffering in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, after the United States destroyed these cities with nuclear bombs on August 6 and August 9, 1945, is a powerful argument against the repeated use of such weapons. 210,000 people were killed in those attacks.

"It's still taboo in Russia to cross that threshold," says Dara Massicot, a policy researcher at the Rand Corporation, also a former analyst of Russia's military capabilities at the US Department of Defense.

What does Putin have in mind? Difficult answer for nuclear analysts
A Russian nuclear submarine breaks through the ice during an Arctic exercise (March 26, 2021)

"It is one of the most difficult decisions in human history," says Mr. Baklitskiy.

The backlash could turn President Putin into a global outcast.

"Breaking the nuclear taboo would, at a minimum, impose complete diplomatic and economic isolation on Russia," says Sidharth Kaushal, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute in London, which specializes in security and defense.

The long-range nuclear weapons that Russia would use in the event of a direct conflict with the United States are in combat readiness. But its stockpiles of shorter-range nuclear warheads, so-called tactical weapons, that President Putin could use in Ukraine are not on standby.

"All the warheads are in stockpiles," says Pavel Podvig, a nuclear weapons researcher at a UN organization in Geneva.

"They have to be taken out of the bunkers, they have to be loaded onto trucks and then they have to be mounted on rockets or other launch systems," he says.

Russia has not published a complete inventory of its nuclear weapons and their capabilities. President Putin could order a smaller weapon to be secretly readied and prepared for surprise use.

What does Putin have in mind? Difficult answer for nuclear analysts
Russian MiG-31K aircraft have the capability to launch nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles

Also, the visible removal of weapons from warehouses would be another tactic that President Putin could use to increase the pressure, without putting these weapons into use. He would expect American satellites to spot the activity and perhaps hope that by showing his "nuclear teeth" he could scare the Western powers into reducing their support for Ukraine.

"This is what the Russians would expect, that the escalation offers the other side a threat, but also an opportunity to negotiate with Russia," says Mr. Kaushal.

He adds that: “There is a kind of language in nuclear and vulnerability signaling, and a logic; so it is much more than just a madman, who one day decides to do this or that action".

Analysts also expect further escalations, including increased Russian attacks in Ukraine, without using nuclear weapons first.

"I don't think there will be a bolt from the open," said Nikolai Sokov, who took part in arms control negotiations while working for Russia's Foreign Ministry and now works at the Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation in Vienna.

Analysts also have difficulty identifying battlefield targets that would be of sufficient value for the high price that President Putin would pay. If a nuclear strike didn't stop the Ukrainian advance, would it strike again?

Mr. Podvig says that in this war there is no large concentration of forces that could constitute a target for a nuclear attack.

What does Putin have in mind? Difficult answer for nuclear analysts
During the launch of the Russian intercontinental missile Yars. (February 19, 2022)

Nuclear attack on cities, in the hope that Ukraine would be shocked enough to surrender, would be a terrible alternative.

"The decision to kill tens and hundreds of thousands of people in cold blood would be a difficult decision," he says. "As it should be".

President Putin may be hoping that mere threats could slow down Western arms supplies to Ukraine, and give him more time to train the 300,000 additional troops he is mobilizing, sparking protests and an exodus of men from Ukraine. capable of war.

But if Ukraine continues to retake occupied territories and Russian President Putin determines that the occupied territories can no longer be held, analysts fear the growing risk that he may decide that there are no more non-nuclear options.

"Putin is really tearing down a lot of bridges behind him already, with the mobilization and the annexation of new territories," says Mrs. Massicot.

"This suggests to us that he is committed to a complete victory on his own terms," ​​she adds. "I'm very worried about where this will lead us, including some kind of nuclear decision."

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