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Exports in "free fall". November marks a deep decline for all sectors, but the weakest fashion of all

2023-12-19 09:50:59Biznes SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

Exports in "free fall". November marks a deep decline for all sectors,

Exports continued their downward trend in November by about 22% compared to November 2022, deepening the contractionary trend observed this year.

In November, all export groups, except food and beverages, recorded a decline, while the strongest decline was for construction materials with -26.6% and wood products with 21%.

According to INSTAT, in November 2023, exports of goods reached the value of 33 billion ALL, decreasing by -21.8%, compared to the same period a year ago and by -9.9%, compared to October 2023.

Since March, exports have failed to recover, marking the worst performance since the pandemic period. In January, sales abroad expanded by 20.2% on an annual basis, while in February they expanded by only 2.8%. The decline started in March, with 11.7%, deepened in April with 19.3% and followed the negative trend in May with -11.7%. In June the contraction deepened again to 17.3%, to slow down in July to -4%, jumping in August with -21.9% to continue in September with -12.8%. In October, the contraction slowed to 4.3% and in November it deepened by 21.8%.

The textile and footwear industry had the most negative effect on the decline in November

According to INSTAT, during the month of November 2023, the reduction of exports by 21.8% was influenced by the groups: "Textiles and shoes" with -18.7 percentage points, "Machinery, equipment and spare parts" with -25 percentage points, "Wood products and paper" with -32.6 percentage points, etc., "Minerals, fuels, electricity" with -49.1 percentage points, "Construction materials and metals" with -8.6 percentage points, while "Chemical and plastic products" increased by 33.3 points percentage.

Exports, during this 11-month period, have decreased by -10%, compared to a year ago. The groups that have negatively affected the annual decrease in exports are: "Construction materials and metals" with -26.6 percentage points, "Minerals, fuels, electricity" with -9.8 percentage points, "Textiles and shoes" with -5 ,8 percentage points, etc., "Chemical and Plastic products" with -9.9% points, "Wood products" with -21.3% points, while the groups: "Food, drinks, tobacco" with +10 percentage points and "Machinery, equipment and spare parts" with +0.2 percentage points.

Minerals and fuels resume their decline

"Minerals and fuels" fell by 49% in November, after increasing by 6.2% in October. The performance of this group's exports depends on energy as well as on the number of ships that Bankers Petroleum manages to send in a month, the largest oil producer in the country, as well as on energy exports. For the 11-month period, the group recorded a contraction of 9.8%.

Building materials and metals return to decline

Construction materials and metals maintained the downward trend (-8.6%) in November, after having contracted at high double-digit rates throughout the 8 months of this year. In November the group returned to decline, after a slight increase in October. According to sources from Kurum, one of the largest exporters in the country, the trend is related to several factors, such as the price trend, but also the progress of demand. For the 11-month period, this group shrank by 26.6%, giving the most negative impact on the performance of exports.

Food, beverages and tobacco started the decline in November

"Food, beverages and tobacco" was the sector with the most stable performance of exports this year, but in November this group also recorded a decrease of 9.5%. In July, this group increased its exports by almost 20%. However, in August, this group recorded a relatively strong decline of 9.7% on an annual basis, as a result of unfavorable weather that affected the reduction of production. The downward trend worsened further in September, with nearly 14% contraction in products sold, the most negative performance this year. In October, exports continued to decline, albeit at a slower rate of -0.5%, while in November the downward trend deepened further.

However, for the 11-month period, this group has expanded by 10%, influenced by the positive performance in the first part of the year.

The automotive industry continues to decline, off course

Exports of machinery, equipment, spare parts were until March the group that was recording the best performance of exports as a result of the expansion of factories working in the automotive support industry.

But, since April, this group has been showing negative progress, except for the month of May. The contraction continued in November, with 25%. According to company representatives, the negative performance is related to the consequences that the devaluation of the euro is having on the activity of factories that produce or assemble spare parts for the automotive industry. On the other hand, the constant increase in costs is making the industry less competitive. For the 11-month period, the group has increased by about 0.17%.


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