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US risks repeating Iraq's mistakes in Iran

2026-03-26 21:31:36Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

US risks repeating Iraq's mistakes in Iran

With the war against Iran in its fourth week, some former officials and experts warn that the US is facing challenges similar to those brought about by the long conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam.

Peter Mansoor, a former U.S. Army colonel and professor of military history at Ohio State University, says it’s “déjà vu all over again.” He recalls that, as in Iraq, the U.S. had launched an intensive air campaign, destroying Iranian military capacity, but without a clear plan for the aftermath.

The Trump administration predicted the operation could last only four to six weeks, but experts warn that, even if the air campaign succeeds, it could turn into a protracted conflict with a strong Iranian regime that could hold global oil supplies hostage for years.

"Iraq focused on combat operations that were extraordinary, but the thought about the consequences of the fall of the Baathist regime was minimal," says Mansoor. "In this case, we are not sure if we want the fall of the regime, and we do not know the end of the conflict."

Meanwhile, Iran has responded by threatening to block the Strait of Hormuz, which carries a fifth of the world's oil, forcing the US to face the consequences of its "if you break it, you're responsible" policy - a lesson learned from Iraq.

Experts warn that Tehran's resistance could destabilize the Persian Gulf region and prevent the US from declaring an end to the war without engaging in ground combat or risking global economic damage.

Robert Kaplan of the University of Texas points out: "Trump may feel the need to continue, even though the situation is complicated."

However, the Trump administration emphasizes that the objectives are clear: destroying the Iranian fleet, limiting the ability to arm militias in the region, and preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons.

But Alan Eyre, a veteran diplomat, warns that war could have unpredictable consequences, including increasing Tehran's motivation to strengthen its military and nuclear capabilities.

Experts advise that, as in Iraq, the lack of clear political objectives and inadequate plans for consequences could turn a planned conflict into a protracted and dangerous war for the US and its allies.

In this context, although the war in Iran is expected to be shorter than the one in Iraq, the warnings are clear: the mistakes of the past could be repeated, and the strategic consequences could be serious for decades.


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