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"Moscow cannot win a long economic war with Ukraine" - Economist who criticized Putin is fired

2026-08-17 17:53:37Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

"Moscow cannot win a long economic war with Ukraine" - Economist who

Andrei Klepach, one of Russia's most prominent economists and chief economist of state-owned development bank VEB, has been dismissed from his post after a series of critical statements about the state of the Russian economy and the ever-increasing costs of the war in Ukraine.

Klepach, who had held the post since 2014, left the bank just days after Russian media published details of a speech he gave in May to fellow economists.

In his speech, Klepach gave an extremely bleak assessment of Moscow's economic prospects.

He stated that Russia was "falling behind" China and the United States, and in some ways, according to him, even behind Ukraine.

One of Klepach's strongest statements was the warning that Russia cannot win a long economic confrontation with Ukraine.

"We will not win this race in a war of attrition with Ukraine," he was quoted as saying, contradicting widespread expectations in Moscow that the Ukrainian economy would collapse because of the war.

According to him, this expectation is an illusion.

"We have the illusion that everything there will collapse. It hasn't collapsed and it won't collapse. Our costs are increasing," was the economist's warning.

Klepach also warned that the pressure of the war on the Russian economy could cause a "social crisis," which could erupt at a moment when no one expects it.

His statements constitute one of the most direct admissions from a top Russian economist that the country's economy is facing serious difficulties.

VEB Bank has not given an official reason for Klepach's dismissal.

However, a person familiar with him told the Russian newspaper Vedomosti that his departure was related to his "personal, harsh assessments" of economic and political developments in Russia, which could not be reconciled with the institution's official stance.

Meanwhile, independent Russian media outlet The Bell, citing sources, reported that Klepach had been dismissed on the orders of the Kremlin and that the decision was directly related to his May speech.

Alexandra Prokopenko, a former adviser to the Russian Central Bank and a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, described Klepach as a respected economist who was not afraid to express views that deviated from the official line.

According to her, his dismissal will not postpone the crisis he had warned about.

The Russian economy is experiencing one of the most difficult periods since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Massive war spending, Western sanctions and Ukrainian attacks on Russia's oil and gas sector have added to the pressure on Moscow's finances.

In the first four months of 2026 alone, Russia's budget deficit reached about 5.87 trillion rubles, or roughly $81 billion. The figure is much higher than the government's target of 3.79 trillion rubles for the entire year.

According to sources cited in the reports, some of Vladimir Putin's closest advisers have privately warned him that the current level of war spending is becoming unsustainable.

At the same time, Ukrainian attacks have hit important economic targets inside Russia.

Recent attacks on dozens of warehouses of Wildberries, Russia's largest e-commerce company, have destroyed billions of dollars worth of goods and raised questions about the company's financial stability.

For thousands of independent sellers who rely on the platform, the strikes have also brought direct economic consequences.

Despite mounting pressure, Putin has shown no sign of being willing to scale back the war or curb military spending. Instead, the Kremlin has sought to raise revenue by raising taxes on small businesses and pressuring oligarchs to contribute more to financing the war.

The rise in oil prices this year, fueled by the US war in Iran, has given Moscow billions of dollars in additional revenue and helped ease some of the pressure on Russian finances.

However, Klepach's warnings highlight an increasingly apparent contradiction: while the Kremlin insists that the Russian economy is successfully coping with the costs of the war, critical voices within the economic elite are warning that prolonged spending could lead the country towards a broader economic and social crisis.


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