'Corriere della Sera' writes that Vladimir Putin's aggression against Ukraine and threats against the West have awakened Germany from its historical pacifism.
Berlin's decisions to supply weapons to Ukraine and allow their use inside Russian territory indicate a significant strategic turn.
According to the article, Germany's resurgence as a military power poses a real threat to Russia, as Berlin has much greater financial and technological capabilities. At the same time, Putin's actions and the weakening of American engagement are pushing Europe and Asia towards a defense reorganization, with Japan and South Korea likely to follow suit. Thus, Russia could face future consequences of its own making.
Excerpt from the article by "Corriere della Sera":
Vladimir Putin's harsh reaction to Germany's recent decisions - to supply large quantities of weapons to Ukraine and allow their use deep inside Russian territory - reveals a weak point in the Russian leader. He may now be realizing the greater consequence of his aggressive behavior.
By invading Ukraine, Putin forced Sweden and Finland, two traditionally neutral states, to join NATO. Now, even rejecting Donald Trump's intervention, he has accelerated the process of rearming Germany - a state that for nearly eight decades was pacifist and somewhat disarmed.
Germany's return to the military scene could be a major blow to Moscow. Historically, Germany has been one of the biggest threats to Russia's security. Waking up this "sleeping giant" could be one of Putin's biggest strategic mistakes.
According to the classic observation of NATO’s first secretary, Lord Ismay, the purpose of the Alliance was: “To keep the Americans in (in Europe), the Russians out and the Germans down.” This post-World War II logic clearly described the balance of power and the fear of a rearmed Germany. NATO assured everyone that America would defend Europe, without the need for Germany to rebuild militarily.
But now, after Putin's actions and the weakening of American commitment, Germany feels vulnerable and forced to take care of its own security. The current CDU leader, Friedrich Merz, is not a militarist, but he must act.
Although it will take years to rebuild Germany's armed forces and defense industry, Germany's financial and technological potential is far greater than Russia's. Therefore, Putin may one day regret forcing Berlin to wake up from its geopolitical lethargy.
The same scenario is playing out in Asia: if America withdraws from the region, Japan and South Korea may feel compelled to rearm, perhaps even with nuclear weapons. Xi Jinping’s efforts to weaken the American presence in the Indo-Pacific could produce the same unintended consequences as Putin’s actions in Europe.
In essence, the two authoritarian leaders, Putin and Xi, are promoting a resurgence of powers that have been restrained for decades – Germany, Japan – and a profound reorganization of the global security architecture. This could result in a powerful return to old balances, with long-term consequences that could be very costly for Russia and China themselves.