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Ordering contracts (fasons) drop significantly, exporters announce the risk of employment as well

2023-12-05 14:07:44Biznes SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

Ordering contracts (fasons) drop significantly, exporters announce the risk of

In the last survey report of the Bank of Albania's businesses and consumers, the respondents have declared a significant deterioration of the Export Ordering Contracts.

The balance of this indicator for November decreased to -20 percentage points, which means that many more exporters have had a decrease in export contracts than have declared an increase. This is the lowest level of this year and the most negative since November 2022.

In general, the industry sector is not showing positive progress and expectations, appearing pessimistic about employment as well, although the balance continues to remain positive.

The industry confidence index (TBI) fell by 0.6 percentage points in November, marking a slower decline than in the previous month. However, the TBI continues to remain above the historical average. Industry businesses were more pessimistic about ordering contracts, mainly those related to export. On the other hand, they reported improved actual industrial production.

Expectations of industrial businesses for future production have remained unchanged from the level of a month ago, while expectations for future employment are declining. Expectations for the prices of the products they will produce in the future are estimated to increase this month.

Other INSTAT data show that exports are showing a continuous downward trend. Since March, exports have failed to recover, marking the worst performance since the pandemic period. In January, sales abroad expanded by 20.2% on an annual basis, while in February they expanded by only 2.8%.

The decline started in March, with 11.7%, deepened in April with 19.3% and followed the negative trend in May with -11.7%. In June the contraction deepened again to 17.3%, to slow down in July to -4%, jumping in August with -21.9% to continue in September with -12.8%. In October, the contraction slowed to 4.3%.

For the 10th month, exports decreased by -8.6%, compared to a year ago. The groups that have negatively affected the annual decrease in exports are: "Construction materials and metals" with -6.4 percentage points, "Minerals, fuels, electricity" with -1.2 percentage points, "Textiles and shoes" with -1.2 percentage points, etc.

While the following groups have had a positive impact: "Food, drinks, tobacco" with +1.3 percentage points and "Machinery, equipment and spare parts" with +0.3 percentage points, according to INSTAT.

The textile and footwear industry, which works with custom material (fason) and is one of the largest employers in the country (mainly of low-income groups), is in a difficult situation. For the fifth month in a row, exports of textiles and shoes have followed the shrinking trend.

In October, this group shrank by 11.4%, the steepest decline since the pandemic period, when factories shut down due to problems created in the global economy by pandemic restrictions.


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