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Gulf countries are facing a nightmare scenario: Iran is exposing their weaknesses

2026-03-08 18:29:28Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Gulf countries are facing a nightmare scenario: Iran is exposing their
Gulf countries are facing a nightmare scenario

Robert F. Worth - The Atlantic

Since the first Iranian missiles appeared in the skies over the Persian Gulf last weekend, the efforts of the countries hit to intercept them have been accompanied by another equally intense effort: reassuring residents, tourists and investors that they have no reason to worry.

The president of the United Arab Emirates was filmed calmly strolling through a shopping mall in Dubai, while a large number of social media influencers downplayed the images of burning hotels and closed airports.

“Looking at crime rates in Europe, Dubai remains statistically safer even with missiles flying,” Pavel Durov, the CEO of the Telegram app, wrote on the X network. “I can’t wait to go back.”

However, even optimists acknowledge that the longer the war drags on, the more the Gulf region's great vulnerabilities will be exposed.

The risks for the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait go beyond the disruption of oil and gas sales.

In an arid region with few natural resources, everyone depends on daily supplies of food and desalinated water, transported via roads and pipelines that can be hit by the air.

In the past half century, the Gulf has transformed from a sparsely populated desert into a modern hub of migration and trade with some 60 million people. All this prosperity has been built on a fragile assumption: that Iran would never do what it is doing now.

“If this continues for another week or two, tourists and investors will return and losses can be recovered,” said an Emirati citizen who asked to remain anonymous. “But if it lasts longer, only God knows what could happen.”

The number of missiles being launched towards Gulf countries has decreased in recent days, largely thanks to US and Israeli efforts to destroy Iranian launchers.

But even a small number of drone attacks, if they continue for months, could damage the Gulf's image as a safe haven in an unstable region.

Dubai, the largest city in the United Arab Emirates, is particularly exposed to this reputational risk, as its economy is heavily dependent on tourism, real estate and foreign investment.

But in fact the entire Gulf region has become hostage to the developing war.

Qatar has fewer air defense systems than its larger neighbors.

The country's Energy Minister, Saad al-Kaabi, warned that all oil and gas producers in the Persian Gulf could be forced to halt production within days. According to him, the war could "collapse the economies of the world."

Foreign workers make up a large part of the region's population and thousands of them have already left in recent days.

The prospect of an even greater exodus is worrisome for many Gulf residents, who depend on migrant labor for everything from childcare to the oil industry.

The uncertainty is compounded by the ambiguity surrounding the strategic calculations of Iran and the United States. No one can say for sure what would please President Donald Trump, or what logic determines the targets Iran chooses.

Of the hundreds of missiles and thousands of drones that Iran has launched against Gulf countries since the start of the conflict, most appear to have targeted US military bases.

But some of them have also hit symbolic targets, such as hotels in Dubai.

According to a senior Gulf official, these attacks on economic targets are part of an Iranian effort to force regional leaders to pressure the United States to end the war.

However, there are signs that Iran is moving to a new level of escalation.

He has carried out attacks on several Gulf ports and threats to hit any tanker passing through the Strait of Hormuz have virtually blocked this maritime corridor, through which about 20 percent of global oil supply passes.

One of the most frightening scenarios, according to some Saudi and Emirati officials, would be an attack on water supplies. The Arabian Peninsula has no rivers or lakes, and all Gulf countries depend on seawater desalination plants.

These facilities, which account for about half of global desalination capacity, are usually connected to power plants, which makes them even more vulnerable to attack.

“This has been an existential concern for the Gulf states,” said Professor Michael Christopher Low of the University of Utah. Striking these facilities would be considered a war crime under the Geneva Conventions, but it would not be unprecedented.

In 1991, during the withdrawal from Kuwait, Saddam Hussein's forces sabotaged the country's desalination and power plants. In 2022, Houthi rebels also struck a desalination plant and power plant in Saudi Arabia.

Another factor of uncertainty relates to possible developments within Iran itself. Diplomatic circles are also discussing the scenario that the Iranian regime could split into rival factions or become embroiled in a civil war, as happened in Syria and Libya.

Such chaos could easily spread beyond Iran's borders. The Persian Gulf is relatively narrow and would not be a major obstacle for militants or armed groups that could cross it in speedboats.

Each of these scenarios would constitute a strategic blow to the United States, which relies on a network of military bases in the Persian Gulf to maintain its power in the Middle East and Africa.

A destabilization of the region would also have serious consequences for the global economy, which still remains dependent on oil supplies from Arabia and the Gulf countries.

“This is the scenario that the Gulf states have been dreading for years,” said Kristian Ulrichsen of the Baker Institute for Public Policy at Rice University. “They are caught in the middle of a war that they did not start, but they are on the front lines and are bearing the brunt of the response.”

For now, Gulf leaders have little chance of influencing the course of the war. They had almost no role in the decision to start it and cannot directly change the course of the conflict.

Many of them would like the end of the Iranian regime that is launching missiles at them. But they also know that what might come next could be even more dangerous.


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