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The Economist: Putin's plan to profit from the Israel-Hamas war

2023-10-18 21:24:05Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA THE ECONOMIST
The Economist: Putin's plan to profit from the Israel-Hamas war
Vladimir Putin

In the last 48 hours, there have been a series of diplomatic initiatives by Russia regarding the crisis in the Middle East. On October 16, Vladimir Putin himself spoke with Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel, and the leaders of Egypt, Iran, Syria and the Palestinian Authority.

The Russian president expressed his condolences for the slain Israelis, but did not denounce the Hamas attacks. Russia's czar also called for a ceasefire and blamed America for the crisis.

What do phone conversations signal?

These calls confirm two things: Russia's alienation from Israel and that the Kremlin sees the Israel-Hamas war as an opportunity to undermine and distract the West.

And precisely this effort has been applauded by China, which Putin visited to participate in the "One Belt and One Road" Initiative summit organized by Xi Jinping.

Meanwhile, Joe Biden met with Netanyahu, assuring him of continued US support. Netanyahu called Vladimir Putin his "dear friend". He has visited Russia dozens of times in recent years.

So he must have been surprised that the Russian president waited nine days after the Hamas attack in southern Israel to talk to him.

Some argue that Netanyahu, the dominant politician in Israel for the past two decades, also has an "affinity" with strongmen like Putin. He was reluctant to criticize Russia for invading Ukraine and was silent when he did. Nor did it supply Ukraine with weapons, despite Ukraine's requests.

There are many possible connections between Russia and Israel: 15% of Israelis speak Russian, due to their origins in the former Soviet Union.

Putin appears to admire Israel as a regional power that is not afraid to show its might and welcomed Netanyahu's "apparent indifference to Russia's democratic failures".

There is no indication that Russia provided any direct assistance to Hamas either in planning or executing its attack on southern Israel.

But Russia has maintained friendly relations with the Iran-backed group since taking power in Gaza, believing it could one day be useful. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov welcomed a member of the Hamas leadership, Khaled Meshaal, to Moscow in 2007. When Israeli forces entered Gaza in 2014 in a seven-week operation, they were confronted by a large number of Russian anti-tank missiles, which Iran supplied.

Russia's increasingly warm relationship with Iran has already created tensions with Israel and could have caused a stalemate even without the October 7 atrocity. Last year, Russia approached Iran to buy hundreds of Shahed drones in order to continue its attacks in Ukraine.

In return, Russia is believed to have supplied Iran with helicopters and air defense systems. These weapons, in turn, would increase Iran's capabilities if it were at war with Israel.

Putin might not want it, but he probably wouldn't mind if Israel's war against Hamas escalated and spread to other parts of the Arab world.

Hamas has already helped divert the West's focus from the war in Ukraine. US President Joe Biden is trying to secure congressional approval for further aid to Ukraine. But even if this succeeds, the fighting in the Middle East will reduce the flow of munitions to Ukraine, in favor of Russia.

By sending two aircraft carriers to the region, as well as its top diplomat, Anthony Blinken, America has shown how eager it is to prevent the conflict from expanding.

The US hopes to deter Hezbollah, another Iranian proxy, which controls southern Lebanon and has an arsenal of up to 150,000 rockets aimed at Israel.

If the war were to spread, there would be two benefits for Russia and Iran.

The first would be a rise in oil and gas prices that would help both troubled economies and give Putin extra cash to finance his war in Ukraine.

The second would be the disruption of America's plans for the Middle East. Already, Hamas has served the interests of Iran and Russia by delaying the controversial peace agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia that America spent so much time and effort to achieve.

For much the same reasons China also refused to offer consolation to Israel by condemning Hamas. China has so far only expressed concern "over the current escalation of tensions and violence between Palestine and Israel."

Like Russia, China would be happy to see America sink into the region and its authority questioned.

China helped broker a rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia earlier this year, partly in hopes of undermining the US-led world order.

China may have had no idea of ​​Hamas' plans, but it is unlikely to regret the turmoil it caused.


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