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Russia could test NATO with a limited attack

2026-08-18 17:42:10Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

Russia could test NATO with a limited attack

US intelligence has raised concerns that Vladimir Putin may attempt to test NATO's resolve with a limited action against an Alliance member country, in a development that is raising concerns about European security.

According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, new US intelligence assessments suggest that Russia could consider an action against a NATO country between the fall of 2026 and 2029. The scenarios mentioned range from cyberattacks and sabotage to the use of armed groups without identifying marks and, in the most serious scenario, a limited military incursion into NATO's eastern flank.

No confirmation of an attack "next month"

Despite headlines talking about the possibility of an attack within weeks, US intelligence has not given a concrete date for a Russian attack on NATO.

The WSJ report places the possible period in a window that begins this fall and extends until 2029. According to the cited estimates, the scenario of a ground incursion is currently low probability, but the risk could increase over time.

This means that an attack in September or October 2026 is a scenario included in the warned period, but it is not a prediction that Russia will definitely attack NATO next month.

What can Russia do?

According to reported assessments, Moscow may be looking for a way to test the Alliance's response without launching a full-scale war.

The scenarios include cyberattacks on the infrastructure of a NATO country, sabotage of critical facilities, drone or missile attacks, the use of armed groups without identifying marks, and even a limited incursion into the territory of a member country.

The likely goal would be to see whether NATO would react immediately and in a united manner, or whether divisions would emerge among member countries.

Why is the eastern wing considered more at risk?

The main attention is focused on Poland, the Baltic countries and other parts of NATO's eastern flank, where the distance from Russian territory and Belarus is relatively small.

New air incidents have also been recorded in recent days.

On August 14, NATO aircraft shot down a drone that entered Latvian airspace. An Italian Eurofighter was used to intercept it, while two Turkish and one Italian aircraft were also scrambled. Authorities said the investigation into the origin of the drone was ongoing.

Just two days later, another suspected Russian drone entered Romanian airspace and was shot down by a Spanish F-18 fighter jet. This was the fourth such incident in Romanian airspace since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

These incidents are not automatically evidence of a planned attack on NATO, but they have raised concerns that the Alliance's air defenses may be being tested or put under pressure.

Germany warns of hybrid warfare

The concern is not limited to conventional attacks.

General Carsten Breuer, the head of the German Army, has warned that Russia is constantly testing NATO's defenses through hybrid tactics, including drone incidents. According to him, Moscow is trying to identify weaknesses in European defenses and assess how the Alliance would react.

In Germany, authorities are also investigating an incident involving a suspected Russian-linked drone found near Leipzig/Halle airport. US intelligence has linked the incident to Russia, the WSJ reported.

Biggest risk: an escalating incident

One of NATO's main concerns is that Russia not launch a major invasion, but rather take limited and ambiguous action.

A cyberattack, sabotage, armed drone or small incursion can create a major dilemma for NATO: how big the response should be and whether it should be considered an attack on the entire Alliance.

This is directly related to Article 5 of the NATO Treaty, according to which an attack on one member is considered a matter for the Alliance as a whole.

Precisely for this reason, a limited provocation could be strategically important for Moscow: not necessarily to conquer large territory, but to test whether NATO countries would stay united.

NATO: we are prepared

NATO has stated that it is ready to prevent and, if necessary, defend the territory of member countries.

A spokesman for the Alliance said that NATO is "ready to deter and defend as needed," while emphasizing that the alliance is constantly preparing for a range of scenarios.

Meanwhile, recent drone incidents are forcing European countries to review how they protect their airspace, as using fighter jets for each drone is prohibitively expensive.

A warning for Europe

The new American assessment comes at a time when the war in Ukraine continues and Russia is increasingly using hybrid warfare tools beyond the battlefield.

The main message from US intelligence is not that a Russia-NATO war is inevitable. The warning is that Moscow may see an opportunity to test the cohesion of the Alliance in the coming years, and that this risk must be taken seriously.

At the moment, there is no public evidence that Putin has decided on a direct attack on NATO next month. But the fact that American assessments now include such a possibility on the horizon from autumn 2026 to 2029 has caused fresh alarm in European capitals.


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