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Assad's fall, a blow to Iran and Russia: What Syria risks now

2024-12-09 23:26:16Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Assad's fall, a blow to Iran and Russia: What Syria risks now
Celebrations in Syria after the departure of Bashar al-Assad

The overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad dealt a powerful blow to Iran's web of influence in the Middle East, but the United States, Arab countries and Israel may now face the risk of destabilization and the rise of extremist forces to power in Syria.

US President Joe Biden hailed the ouster of Bashar al-Assad as “a fundamental act of justice” for “a regime that tortured and killed hundreds of thousands of innocent Syrians,” and called his fall a “historic moment for the suffering Syrian people.” But he said it is also a moment of “danger and uncertainty.”

"In the coming days, the United States will initially support Syria's neighbors, Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq, and Israel, in the event of any threat from Syria during this transition period," President Biden declared.

The main group that ended the 50-year rule of the Assad family in Syria is the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham organization, a Sunni group that was previously affiliated with Al Qaeda, the organization declared a terrorist organization by the US government and the United Nations.

According to Western diplomats and analysts, there is now concern that the rebels could install an extremist Islamic government in power, or a government that will not be able to withstand radical forces in a country like Syria made up of different sects and ethnic groups, each of which is supported by a regional power.

Western experts are concerned that the lack of law and order in Syria will enable the return of extremist groups such as the 'Islamic State', which in 2014 occupied large parts of the territory of Syria and Iraq in an attempt to establish an Islamic Caliphate, before being expelled by the United States-led coalition in 2019.

United States President-elect Donald Trump reacted on Sunday through a post on his social platform:

"Assad is gone. He abandoned his country. His protector, Vladimir Putin's Russia, was no longer interested in protecting him," Mr. Trump wrote.

A day earlier, Mr. Trump had written: "Syria is a mess. But this country is not our friend and the United States should not be involved. This is not our battle."

On Sunday, US forces carried out several airstrikes in Syria against Islamic State members to prevent their advance.

Assad's allies, Tehran and Moscow, who kept him in power for the past 13 years through military support, also reacted to the new situation created in Syria.

For Tehran, Assad's fall is a major loss for its influence in the region, as it prevents Iran from continuing to arm militant groups, in particular Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran was surprised, as he put it, by the Syrian army's "failure" to respond to the offensive.

"We are monitoring developments to prevent issues that concern us. They include the possibility of a new civil war or a war between different tribes and the disintegration of Syria, or its complete collapse, which would turn it into a center and haven for terrorists," he declared.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday that Russian President Putin personally made the decision to offer asylum to Assad and his family and said Moscow was taking steps to secure Russian military bases in Syria.

Syria was Moscow's main base in the Middle East. The naval base in Syria was the main point in the Mediterranean Sea through which Russia sent contracted military units to Africa.

In his speech to residents gathered in central Damascus on Sunday, Syrian rebel leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani promised them a new chapter for the region, in which Syria would become "an example of an Islamic state."

Experts and diplomats warn that divisions between different groups in Syria could escalate into an open conflict as happened in Libya after the fall of Gaddafi or Saddam in Iraq, with profound effects in Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq and Jordan./ VOA


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