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Why is it so unusual for a French president to be re-elected?

2022-04-23 22:55:38Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

Why is it so unusual for a French president to be re-elected?

The Economist Explanation

Some countries like to rely on their leaders. Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama each won a second term in America. Germany's Angela Merkel was re-elected three times; British Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair by twice.

However, under the French Fifth Republic, introduced by Charles de Gaulle in 1958, the French never re-elected an incumbent president who had a parliamentary majority. Why is it so unusual for the head of state of France to win a second term?

A referendum in 2000 shortened the French presidential term from seven to five years. Following constitutional reforms in 2008, leaders can serve only two consecutive terms. But even that has saved most of them. De Gaulle himself was re-elected in 1965. But he was first elected in 1958 by an electoral college of parliamentarians, mayors and city council members, not by the people.

The only direct-re-elected presidents are François Mitterrand, a Socialist, in 1988, and Jacques Chirac, in 2002. They each achieved this while chairing a government of opposition parties, under a power-sharing agreement known as "coexistence." This made it easier to avoid guilt. Moreover, in a shocking first-round result, Chirac faced a run-off against Jean-Marie Le Pen, the xenophobic leader of the National Front, and the father of Marine Le Pen, the current presidential candidate. This match increased Mr. Chirac's chances overnight. No incumbent French president has been re-elected since.

Why is it so unusual for a French president to be re-elected?

One reason for French love for the ousting of the current president may be the growing disengagement with representative democracy. Reducing turnout is a measure of voter dissatisfaction. Abstention in the first round of the presidential election rose from 16% in 2007 to 26% on April 10 this year. In Britain, the trend has gone the other way: turnout in the general election increased from 61% in 2005 to 67% in 2019.

Another way to assess voter frustration is the rise of extremes. In the first round of this year’s French election, 58% of voters backed an extremist or populist candidate, down from just under half in 2017 - though Emmanuel Macron, the incumbent president, also increased his score by four points at 28%.

The French disappointment seems to be directed directly at the figure of the president. Nearly three-quarters of people have "confidence" in their local mayor, according to an Ifop poll; for the president, that percentage drops to just 41%. The Constitution concentrates great powers in the highest office. The head of state commands the armed forces and the nuclear button, appoints the prime minister and government, can dissolve the National Assembly, go to war and exercise emergency powers. This invests in a single leader both great responsibility and inflated expectations, which quickly turn into disappointment.

But the French dissatisfaction with their leaders seems to have deeper roots. It can actually only be part of the national character. The country periodically tries to overthrow the old regime with mass protests. The French even have a word for it: "dégagisme", or getting rid of the old order. This seems to reinforce the rebellious voting patterns. Leaders challenging the odds - as Mr Macron seems to be doing - remain the rare exception.


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