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Analysis: Can an agreement be reached with Putin?

2022-04-28 21:52:14Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA DORA MEKOUAR
Analysis: Can an agreement be reached with Putin?
Vladimir Putin

As Russia's offensive against Ukraine enters its third month, questions continue to be raised as to whether a negotiated solution with Russian President Vladimir Putin is possible.

Kenneth Dekleva, a psychiatrist who has previously worked with the State Department, dismisses any speculation that Putin is unstable and therefore impossible to talk to.

"He has no mental problems. "He is a rational actor and in his mind, he knows exactly what he is doing," said Mr Dekleva. "He is an extremely smart leader, very intelligent and ruthless, who has been in power for more than 22 years."

Mr. Dekleva, a senior fellow at the George HW Bush Foundation for US-China Relations, has been studying the former Russian intelligence agent for 20 years. He describes Putin as a man of unwavering, strong mind, master of manipulating people and extremely focused, as a result of his preparations in the KGB.

President Putin is 69 years old and his recent actions may suggest a less flexible leadership style, which in some cases is observed in older leaders.

"You become more rigid. You see things more in black and white, and you have less tolerance for nuances and alternatives. Of course it is a possibility, though it can not be said only from his recent decision regarding the war in Ukraine. "He seems to be deliberately very focused and a man in a hurry," said Mr Dekleva.

The key to negotiating with someone like Putin, says Mr. Dekleva, is trying to understand and the ability to share his mentality even when you do not agree with him.

For Jason Pack, an analyst at the NATO Defense College Foundation in Italy, reaching an agreement with Putin requires persuasive action.

"I think we have to be extremely courageous, to the point of those situations that we might think would cause a major escalation ... like getting involved in a fierce cyber war," Pack said. "For example, turn off the lights in St. Petersburg for two hours and then negotiate… Next time, two days will pass (without lights) if you do not meet our requirements."

Zoti Pack thotë se Putini kishte çdo arsye për të besuar se Perëndimi do të tërhiqej nëse ai do të sulmonte Ukrainën, pavarësisht se Perëndimi ka “më shumë fuqi ushtarake dhe ekonomike”.

Ai thekson ndërhyrjen ruse në Gjeorgji në vitin 2008, dikur pjesë e Bashkimit Sovjetik dhe tani republikë e pavarur. Rusia pushtoi 20% të territorit të atij vendi. Në vitin 2014, Putini i rrëmbeu Ukrainës rajonin jugor të Krimesë.

“Duket se ai respekton forcën, dhe nuk respekton vetëm dialogun. Madje, ai nuk mendoi se do t’i vihesin sanksionet (me të cilat e kërcënoi Perëndimi) nëse ai do të sulmonte. Në mendjen e tij, ishin thjeshtë fjalë”, thotë zoti Pack, duke shtuar se nuk beson se Putini do të ndërmarrë ndonjë veprim katastrofik bërthamor.

"He wants to live. He is terrified of COVID. He stands 6 meters away from his advisers (pictured). "So I do not think there is a danger that he will undermine the world as long as we adhere to the rules so that NATO does not fight in Ukraine."

Putin vehemently opposes Ukraine's membership in NATO. That country was part of the Soviet Union. He complained that the West is very close to Russia's borders./VOA

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