
Giordano Stabile – La Stampa
In May 2021, when Pedro Sánchez hosted Polisario leader Brahim Ghali as head of state, Morocco reacted by triggering a migration crisis. Around 10,000 migrants flocked to Ceuta.
On July 20, 2026, the Spanish Prime Minister was welcomed with an official ceremony in Algeria. This time, about 60,000 people set off for Ceuta. The repeated crises in the Spanish enclave seem to follow the same political rhythm.
At the center of them is the rivalry between Rabat and Algiers, which also involves Madrid, especially over the issue of Western Sahara. Once a Spanish colony, the territory was hastily abandoned after the death of dictator Francisco Franco and was occupied by King Hassan II through the “Green March” in November 1975.
Algeria, supported at the time by the socialist bloc, financed and trained the Sahrawi fighters of the Polisario Front, who demanded independence with weapons in hand. Many of them ended up in refugee camps in the Algerian province of Tindouf, near the border with their homeland. There they have lived for more than five decades in dilapidated tents, constantly battered by sandstorms. The camps bear the names of coastal towns that their inhabitants can only dream of from afar. Many children suffer from serious vision problems, including cataracts, as a result of the desert dust.
Every time Spain approaches Algeria or the Polisario, a migration crisis erupts. It's like a valve that King Mohammed VI can open or close according to his interests.
This time the wave was bigger than ever and is not linked to a single event. However, relations between Madrid and Rabat have deteriorated significantly over the past four years.
After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Sánchez government moved even closer to Algeria to secure alternative natural gas supplies. Spain subsequently became one of Israel’s harshest critics of the war in Gaza, officially recognizing the state of Palestine. Meanwhile, Morocco, which joined the Abraham Accords along with the United Arab Emirates in 2019, took a much more moderate stance.
Finally, Sánchez also opposed Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump's war on Iran. He refused to use American bases on Spanish territory for military operations, creating logistical difficulties for the Pentagon, which was forced to rely on the UK for supplies and could not use Spanish bases for strategic bombers.
This stance has combined Morocco's traditional displeasure with that of the US administration. Trump has repeatedly threatened Sánchez with tariffs, sanctions, the interruption of trade relations, and even expulsion from NATO.
A prime minister who legalizes half a million immigrants with a single decree is the ideal target for the sovereignist right. Attacks on him on the issue of immigration also mobilize the MAGA world, which, although often opposed to military interventions in the Middle East, immediately ignites when it comes to immigrants.
Ceuta is the perfect terrain for this political battle.
From this reality to the claim that the crisis was deliberately organized is only one step, but it remains fraught with conspiracy theories. However, beyond the doubts, there are also concrete elements. As The New York Times reported, several young Moroccans, including Youssef Alaoui, 26, have stated by name that they were urged by Moroccan authorities, including police and security forces, to cross the border, with the words: “Go, go.”
It therefore seems clear that Rabat wanted to send a message to Madrid and exert political pressure, also taking advantage of the Spanish court's decision that makes it more difficult to automatically return migrants arriving by sea to Ceuta and Melilla.
Whether this was coordinated with Washington remains unproven.
However, there is another element weighing on this crisis: maritime straits.
The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has brought the strategic importance of sea lanes back into the spotlight. Freedom of navigation, considered for decades a given, is now being challenged from many directions. There is already talk of a model for the Persian Gulf similar to the Strait of Malacca near Singapore, where shipping companies could be forced to contribute financially to the safety of passage.
Ceuta passed under Spanish control from Portugal, which had conquered the city from the Marinid Sultanate in 1415.
Today it constitutes the southern gateway to the Strait of Gibraltar.
A point that in the era of globalization seemed to have lost its former importance, but which today has returned to the center of geopolitical rivalries.
Morocco continues to claim Ceuta and Melilla. Spain has never given up its claims to Gibraltar.
Naval fortresses have regained the strategic importance they had centuries ago. And they are once again the object of everyone's greed.