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The end of an era / How did the population of India 'explode' and overtake China and what is expected to happen?

2023-04-30 20:43:24Fokus SHKRUAR NGA CNN
The end of an era / How did the population of India 'explode' and
The end of an era / How did the population of India 'explode' and overtake China and what is expected to happen?

Counting millions of people is never an easy task, but the United Nations says its latest calculations show that by the end of this weekend, India will have more people than China, marking an epochal shift in global demographics. .

Most of the world grew up with China holding the title of the world's most populous country, but decades of restrictive policies barring families from having more than one child dramatically slowed China's birth rate, allowing India to forward.

But having a number at the top of the list is not necessarily a title that most countries covet. A few years ago, Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed concern about India's "population explosion."

“In 21st century India, the ability to fulfill dreams starts with a person, it starts with a family. If the population is not educated, it is not healthy, then neither the home nor the country can be happy," Modi said.

So how did India's population become so large and how long will it last? CNN analyzed the UN's World Population Prospects data and spoke to experts to dig beneath the headline numbers into the details surrounding India's changing demographics.

How did India become so big?

Not surprisingly, fertility is key to understanding what drives a country's population growth or decline. It is generally accepted that a country's average fertility rate – children per woman – needs to be 2.1 for the population to sustain itself – and even higher for it to grow.

In the 1960s, when today's grandparents were having children, India's fertility rate was 6, about the same rate as some African countries now. But, according to the government, India's total fertility rate fell to 2.0 in the latest nationwide assessment period from 2019 to 2021, from 3.4 from 1992 to 1993. The population growth despite the decline in the fertility rate can be explained by “demographic momentum. ".

"When the birth rate falls, the population continues to grow for several decades. And that's because the younger and older cohorts are still growing up at the age when they become parents," said Frank Swiaczny, senior researcher at the Federal Institute for Population Research.

So even with a replacement or sub-replacement fertility rate, India's population will continue to grow slowly due to the significant number of women entering their reproductive years.

Unsurprisingly for a nation of its size, India's fertility rate is uneven across the country, contributing to a north-south divide that sees more babies produced in the north. But even there, the numbers aren't off the charts.

"What really surprised us is that the highest fertility rate in India — 3.0 in Bihar — is not that high," said Barbara Seligman, chief strategy and growth officer and senior vice president at PRB, a nonprofit group that focuses on in demographic data and population research.

"It's really surprising to see how many states are below replacement level," Seligman added. All but five states – Bihar, Meghalaya, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Manipur – are at that level, and notably, they are all in the north.

In the southern states, a different pattern emerges

For example, Goa has a fertility rate similar to some countries in southern Europe, which are currently struggling to support an aging population with a shrinking workforce. It's a trend that experts say India's leaders would be wise not to ignore.

According to the UN classification, India is now an “aging society” which means that 7% of its population is 65 years or older. In some states, for example in Kerala in southern India, the population over 65 has doubled in the last 30 years and is now at 12%. The same model will be extended to more states given the low total fertility rate.

"We're going to see more and more states over the next 30 years aging the way Kerala is now," Seligman said.

India's population growth is slowing

India may have overtaken China in total population, but UN data also shows its growth rate has slowed. Between 1971 and 1981, India's population was growing at an average of 2.2% each year. From 2001 to 2011, this had slowed to 1.5% and is even lower now. According to UN projections, India's population is expected to peak at around 1.7 billion in 2064.

Currently, more than 40% of the country's residents are younger than 25, and the estimated median age in 2023 is 28 – nearly a decade younger than China's – according to UN data. In 2021, India's working-age population was more than 900 million and is expected to reach 1 billion over the next decade, according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

Not only is this massive – and relatively small – workforce young, it is largely English-speaking, digitally literate and has a reputation for entrepreneurship, making the country a major draw for Western companies looking for an alternative hub. of production in China. But India's contribution to the share of the world's working-age population is expected to slow in the coming decades, making way for a younger population of workers coming out of Africa.

What next for India?

Although it remains one of the poorest countries in the world per capita, India is moving up the global economic league tables. Its nearly $3.5 trillion economy is now the fifth largest in the world and among the fastest growing.

In 2023, the World Bank expects India to outpace all other major economies with growth of 6.6% – compared to 4.3% for China and just 0.5% for the United States, while in some forecasts it is expected to take third place within 10 the next few years and become only the third country with a GDP of $10 trillion by 2035. However, despite its riches, India's wealth is not evenly distributed.

Poverty remains a daily reality for millions of Indians and experts say that while the country has a large population of young people ready and willing to work, compared to other countries, the figures show that there are not enough jobs for them.

The problem is worse in economically disadvantaged regions in the north, which rely heavily on agriculture. Uttar Pradesh, for example, is home to 17% of India's population but has only 9% of industrial jobs.

Sabina Dewan, a senior fellow at the Center for Policy Research, says population growth can be a "tremendous productive force for the economy," but economic growth "depends on providing quality, productive, well-paid jobs."

And that starts with investing more in education beyond primary school, especially for women.

"We need to strengthen our high school system, make it safer and closer to where the girls are, because many parents don't send them to high schools, which are far away, because of security issues, " said Muttreja.

"Not only does India need better policies to get women into work – it needs to ensure that they are able to stay there," Desai said.

For that, more options for temporary contraception are needed to give women more control over childbirth, she said. Education is the best contraceptive pill that can be given to a woman, added Muttreja.

Dewan, of the Center for Policy Research, said that if India does not strike the right balance, it risks losing the considerable advantage of being the world's most populous country with the world's largest share of working-age human capital.

"The challenge of providing education, training and enough good quality jobs is huge. If we don't create enough good jobs, we miss out on the incredible potential of our workers. And we may be looking at a youth population that has greater aspirations than ever before, but few opportunities for income generation.”


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