Business activity falls in the eurozone, fear of recession. Consumers continue to hold back on spending

2023-11-23 11:53:20Biznes SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

Business activity falls in the eurozone, fear of recession. Consumers continue

A slump in eurozone business activity eased somewhat in November but suggested the bloc's economy will shrink again this quarter as consumers continue to hold back on spending, a survey showed.

Last quarter the economy shrank by 0.1%, official data showed, and Thursday's Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November showed the 20-nation currency union is on track to do so again in the fourth quarter.

The HCOB PMI, compiled by S&P Global and seen as a good guide to overall economic health, rose to 47.1 from October's near three-year low of 46.5, but remained well below the 50 mark that separates growth from shrinkage. A Reuters poll had forecast a more modest rise to 46.9.

"The eurozone economy is stuck in the mud. Factoring November's PMI numbers into our now transmission model shows the potential for a second consecutive quarter of GDP contraction,” said Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank.

The PMI covering the bloc's dominant services industry rose to 48.2 this month from 47.8, slightly above the Reuters poll estimate of 48.1. Demand fell for the fifth month in a row, albeit at a slower pace than in October. The new business index rose to 46.7 from 45.6.

Manufacturing activity, which has contracted every month since July 2022, fell again in November. Its PMI rose to 43.8 from 43.1, beating the survey's expectation of 43.4 but firmly below the limit.

An index measuring manufacturing rose to a six-month high of 44.3 from 43.1. As demand fell, factories cut back on purchases of raw materials, and some of the activity was generated by filling old orders. The jobs backlog index came in at 40.1, up from 38.4, but marking the 18th month below 50.

Firms cut headcount for the first time since January 2021 as the continent endured COVID-19 restrictions. The composite employment PMI fell to 49.4 from 50.0.


Video