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ANALYSIS: What the CIA director's mysterious trip to Moscow could mean

2026-08-28 23:34:27Pikëpamje SHKRUAR NGA THOMAS WRIGHT
ANALYSIS: What the CIA director's mysterious trip to Moscow could mean
John Ratcliffe and Putin

Despite Trump's claims, the CIA director's visit was anything but routine. It could be a sign that Putin is becoming more dangerous.

Thomas Wright – The Atlantic

CIA Director John Ratcliffe's brief trip to Moscow yesterday was unannounced, but it can hardly be missed: He flew on a C-17A, a large heavy transport plane, which open-source analysts quickly identified and tracked.

Within a few hours, he was already on his way back home.

The purpose of Ratcliffe's visit remains unknown. In an interview with Glenn Beck this morning, President Trump described it as "kind of semi-routine," but such trips are rare.

The last time a CIA director went to Russia was in November 2021, when William J. Burns told Moscow that the United States was aware of Vladimir Putin's plans to invade Ukraine.

A more likely explanation for this latest trip is that Russia is becoming more dangerous and the Trump administration wanted to warn it against escalation.

Ratcliffe's visit comes at one of the most difficult periods of the war for the Kremlin. Thanks to its drone systems, Ukraine has been able to strike military targets and oil infrastructure deep inside Russia, while also hindering Moscow's advance on the battlefield, turning the front into a killing field in which anything that moves is hit within minutes. Despite making little progress, Russia has continued to suffer heavy losses.

In May, the Russian death toll reached nearly half a million, according to Anne Keast-Butler, head of GCHQ, the United Kingdom's intelligence agency.

Russia's weakness could make Putin more reckless. The Wall Street Journal reported a few weeks ago that the U.S. intelligence community is concerned that Russia could carry out a limited attack on a NATO country, perhaps even launching a small ground incursion.

Such an attack could undermine Russia’s own interests, prompting Europe to accelerate its military buildup and target Moscow’s sovereign assets. But Putin could see an attack on a NATO country as an unprecedented opportunity to disrupt the alliance, producing a crisis in which the United States does not act.

If Washington were not to respond to such an act of aggression, Russia could expose NATO's mutual defense clause as hollow.

Putin has some reason to think the United States can stay out of a conflict if he starts one soon. Trump has consistently expressed disdain for Europe and has shown little interest in challenging Putin. In addition, America's weapons stockpiles have been depleted by the Iran war.

Perhaps in response to fears of increased Russian aggression, NATO organized a major US-led air exercise last week over Poland and the Baltic region, which included flights near the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad.

Other possible signs of Putin’s growing hostility have emerged. In recent weeks, a series of low-level attacks have swept across Europe. Drones loaded with explosives were found at Leipzig airport this month, and there were explosions or fires at weapons factories and other sensitive sites in Estonia, Italy, Bulgaria and the Netherlands, all of which have provided aid to Ukraine.

Authorities have attributed some, but not all, of the attacks to Moscow, and Russian officials have denied responsibility. But they follow a consistent pattern of Russian provocations in Europe.

Despite Putin's ambitions elsewhere in Europe, he appears committed to fighting the war in Ukraine indefinitely. Russia has increased its ballistic missile attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, taking advantage of Kiev's shortcomings in air defenses.

The Journal report suggests that Putin may be preparing a large-scale mobilization to restock Russia’s military for a renewed offensive. The Russian leader could try to overwhelm Ukraine this winter with a massive bombing campaign aimed at destroying its energy grid.

But Kiev is unlikely to capitulate, because it knows Putin will impose punitive conditions.

If Ukraine survives the winter and retains the ability to strike deep inside Russia, then Putin may choose to end the war in mid-2027. Faced with the prospect of a US president in 2029 who is more pro-Ukraine than Trump, Putin may choose to obtain a favorable deal from this administration.

This could include most of the elements of Trump’s 28-point plan without Ukraine withdrawing from the territory it currently controls. This would allow Putin to build a relationship with the United States in Trump’s remaining time as president—lifting sanctions, rejoining the G7, and attempting to undermine the NATO alliance indirectly through a partnership with Trump.

For all of Trump's boasting about Europe, he has real incentives to respond now to prevent a crisis that could spiral out of control.

His administration has options to thwart Putin, if it wants to use them.

For example, Washington could warn Moscow that if it continues its deniable attacks in Europe, the United States will support Ukraine's access to Starlink inside Russia, which would improve the effectiveness of Kiev's long-range strike campaign.

On his way to Moscow, Ratcliffe stopped in Latvia. Today, the Latvian prime minister called the trip a “very good signal,” which seemed to imply that Ratcliffe had been there seeking to strengthen European security.

If the CIA director carried a warning with him, it should have been clear: Any attack on NATO territory would bring the United States down.

Trump may not want to make that kind of commitment, but it may be necessary to ensure that Putin never concludes that there is an opportunity to start a war that destroys NATO.


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