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The bleak future, how the aging population and immigration are affecting the elections

2023-05-16 09:30:37Aktualitet SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
The bleak future, how the aging population and immigration are affecting the
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The 2023 local elections were accompanied by a "paradox".

The number of people who had the right to vote reached 3.65 million people, which is the highest historical level.

But, in contrast to this figure, the number of those who actually voted is the lowest since the 90s (with the exception of 2019 when the elections were largely boycotted).

According to the still inconclusive data from the CEC (which surprisingly is still inconclusive, although the boxes have long been closed), voter turnout is around 37%, the lowest since the 90s (except for 2019 ).

Si rrjedhojë janë vetëm rreth 1.3 milionë votues, nga 1.61 milionë në zgjedhjet lokale të 2015-s dhe 1.66 milionë në zgjedhjet e përgjithshme 2021.

Numri i zgjedhësve i pas viteve ’90 po ndikohet nga dy faktorë. I pari është rritja e brezit të viteve ’90, që për momentin po jep efekt pozitiv, pasi gjithnjë e më shumë të lindur të viteve ’90 kanë të drejtë vote (teorikisht, pasi një pjesë e tyre mund të mos jenë në Shqipëri).

I dyti është niveli i lartë i emigracionit që ka reduktuar ndjeshëm popullsinë banuese në Shqipëri, por ka dhënë ndikim të dukshëm dhe në plakjen e popullsisë, e reflektuar në numrin e ulët të lindjeve të reja (norma e norma e lindshmërisë për çdo grua në moshë riprodhimi ka rënë në 1.3, poshtë nivelit të zëvendsueshmërisë, nga mbi 3 që ishte në fillim të viteve ’90), sipas INSTAT.

Në 1990-n, vetëm 62% e popullsisë kishte mbushur moshën për të votuar, sot ka arritur në 80%

Deri në vitet 2000, ndonëse popullsia banuese në vend ishte më e lartë sesa sot, numri i votuesve ishte i ulët, për shkak të moshës së re të saj. Sipas të dhënave të divizionit për popullsinë të Kombeve të Bashkuara, nga 3.3 milionë banorë që ishin të regjistruar në vend në vitin 1990, rreth 38% e tyre, ose 1.26 milionë banorë ishin nën 18 vjeç, pra që nuk kishin të drejtë vite.

But due to high emigration and declining births, reflecting both emigration and changing lifestyles, the share of the under-18 population has been steadily declining. For example, in 2000, about 35% of the resident population was under 18 years of age, while in 2021 it dropped drastically to 20%. This means that of the 2.85 million people who are declared to be in the country, only 574 thousand were under 18 in 2021, or half of those in 1990.

On the contrary, during the last decades, due to the gradual aging of the population, the weight of people who are over 18 years of voting age has increased.

In 1990, 62% of the country's resident population, or 2 million people, had the right to vote. In 2021 (when the latest data is available), the resident population over 18 was 2.2 million inhabitants, or 80% of the total.

Meanwhile, the increase in the difference between the population that has the right to vote and those that actually vote is an indirect indicator of the increase in immigration.

As the graph "Participation in local elections" shows, the number of people with the right to vote in relation to real voters has a negative correlation, because a significant part of the population of voting age is abroad.

The difference has been significantly highlighted in 2023, with 2.4 million people between the number of people who have the right to vote and those who actually voted, from 1.4-1.7 million, which was in the period 2000-2015, showing a deepening of immigration, in relation to 8 Years ago

The bleakest future

In 1990, according to INSTAT, there were 82 thousand births in the country, while in 2022 only 23.5 thousand (see the graph Births 1990-2022).

While Albania today is reaping the "benefits" of the high number of births in the 90s, United Nations projections are that Albania's population will drop drastically in the coming years, influenced by declining birth rates and emigration.

The United Nations expects that the total resident population in the country, in the year 2100, according to the average variant, will decrease to 1.1 million inhabitants (see the chart: Population of Albania 1990-2021 and projection 2022-2100).

And with this trend, as the effect of those born in the 90s will end, the population is aging, births are falling and immigration is increasing, in the future the day when there will be "many party candidates" will not be far away. than voters! 


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