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2026-09-28 17:43:46Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

There is a constant escalation of accusations from both sides: Greece complains about violations of its airspace by Turkey, about Turkish maritime zones that it says are illegal, and about the deployment of Turkish troops near the coast. On the other side stands Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who is urging Greece to end the "militarization" of its islands. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, meanwhile, calls this a threat to Turkey's security.

Greece is strengthening its armaments

Mary Bossi, emeritus professor of International Security at the University of Piraeus, warns of a new era: "We are seeing increasing escalation and threatening rhetoric from both Turkey and Greece. All this, together with the uncertain regional and international environment, could lead to these tensions reaching an even more extreme point."

The Greek government seems to be relying on deterrence through military force. The principle is: whoever wants peace must be prepared for war. At the end of August, Greece signed a multi-billion euro arms deal with Israel, dubbed "Achilles' Shield." Under the deal, Greece will be equipped with an advanced air defense system, while at the same time investing in its own defense industry.

Little attention in Europe to the conflict

According to Greek analyst and journalist John Psaropoulos, these measures are only about self-defense: "From the Greek perspective, the destabilization of the region around Ukraine and now also in the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea is bad news for efforts to contain the conflict with Turkey."

According to him, these conflicts have created "an atmosphere of lawlessness" in which war has become normalized. Journalist Psaropoulos complains that the conflict with Turkey receives little attention in Europe and Germany. But the longer the conflicts remain unresolved, the greater the risk that serious problems will arise in the long term. "Greece sees Turkey as a potential Russia. The same threat perception that Europe has today towards Russia, Greece has long had towards Turkey," he says.

A perception that stems from the history of the conflict since the Ottoman period. Ronald Meinardus, who has a doctorate on the subject, currently a research associate at the Athens-based ELIAMEP research institute, says that "the parties do not agree on what is actually the subject of the dispute, nor on how these controversial issues should be resolved," he says. This, according to Meinardus, means that the conflict remains in limbo, without any progress towards a solution.

Turkey seeks to change the status quo

For the Greek government, for example, the issue of extending territorial waters around the Aegean islands to twelve nautical miles is considered resolved. After all, such a right is provided for by the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. However, the Turkish parliament has decided since 1995 that, if Greece actually implements this step, Turkey will consider it a cause for war.

Ankara's fear is that, due to the large number of Greek islands, the space of international waters in the Aegean Sea would be significantly reduced, drastically limiting Turkish navigation and maritime traffic.

However, there are many other points of disagreement. Turkey, for example, speaks of several "gray zones", where sovereignty over some uninhabited islands and rocks, according to it, is not clearly defined. From the Greek point of view, the status of these territories is settled and indisputable.

Observer Ronald Meinardus sees here a deliberate strategy by Turkey to expand the list of issues in conflict: "The smaller the basket of disputes, the smaller the chance of gaining something from it. But the more issues you throw in, the greater the chance of getting something out in your favor," he describes the Turkish strategy.

According to Meinardus, the current status quo is in Greece's interest. "And it is precisely this status quo that Turkey seeks to change. Turkey is a revisionist power," he says.

Turkish political scientist sees the situation as a "family conflict"

Greek observers refer, for example, to the Turkish doctrine of the "Blue Homeland" (Mavi Vatan), which is expected to be discussed in parliament soon. It envisages a significant expansion of Turkey's spheres of influence in the Mediterranean. Critics consider this a neo-Ottoman project with expansionist aims.

However, political scientist Hüseyin Bağcı from Ankara tries to calm the situation: "There cannot be a military clash between Turkey and Greece, because both countries are members of NATO and cannot do such a thing. This is a family conflict and it must be resolved within NATO, but also within the European Union."

Domestic political motives?

The fact that Turkey has sent about 2,000 soldiers to the coastal region south of Izmir is, according to observers, a signal that Ankara is ready to use military force. However, political scientist Hüseyin Bağcı believes that President Erdoğan is not interested in a war.

Many developments, experts agree, are motivated by domestic politics. Greece is holding elections in the spring, and Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis does not want to give the impression of a weak leader. One thing is certain: the time of "calm waters," as the period of relaxation of relations after Erdoğan's visit to Athens in 2023 was called, is over. (DW)


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