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Trump takes office on January 20, what is expected to change in the world

2024-12-26 10:42:59Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Trump takes office on January 20, what is expected to change in the world
Donald Trump

On January 20, 2025, Donald Trump will once again take the lead of the United States after a four-year term under the Biden administration, a shift that is expected to bring major changes to American and global politics.

Instead of precise predictions about future developments, it is more useful to consider some key issues that are expected to be in focus.

The new president's priorities
Trump will begin his term with a significant advantage: the Republican Party controls both Congress and the Senate, a situation that offers him the opportunity to advance an ambitious legislative agenda. However, he may face several obstacles, such as internal party disagreements and budget constraints.

One of the top priorities is expected to be extending tax cuts passed during his first term, which expire at the end of 2025. Trump has promised tax cuts that could reach $4 trillion over a 10-year period. He also aims to eliminate limits on public debt to enable financing of his projects.

To cover these costs, he could seek to cut spending on clean energy and social policies like Medicaid and public education, measures that could negatively impact rural areas, which strongly supported Trump in the election. Another source of funding he could use is tariffs on China and other countries, but experts argue that these would lead to higher prices for American consumers.

Delivering on immigration promises
Trump has promised a sweeping plan to deport illegal immigrants, an initiative that would require vast financial and political resources and would face opposition from the public, businesses and the courts. For that reason, it is possible that he will pursue a more streamlined approach to implementing some of the measures.

Trump could limit the validity of visas, raise fees, and extend waiting times for immigrants. He could also reduce the number of refugees admitted and reinstate the policy that forces asylum seekers to wait in Mexico while their claims are processed. He could also take steps to eliminate some programs that enable controlled migration, fundamentally changing the current system.

However, several factors beyond its control could affect the flow of immigrants. If the US economy slows, there may be fewer immigrants looking for work, while a crisis like the one in Venezuela could cause an increase in migratory flows to the US, bringing new challenges.

The US stance on climate
Trump has promised to withdraw the US from international climate agreements and increase reliance on traditional energy sources, such as oil and gas. If these promises are realized, carbon emissions are expected to increase and investment in renewable energy is expected to decline.

However, energy policy is closely tied to global markets and external factors such as oil prices and OPEC demands. Also, policies such as the Inflation Reduction Act have brought significant benefits in many Republican constituencies, making it difficult for Trump to repeal these policies without political consequences.

Despite the Biden administration's efforts to help transition to clean energy, the US remains the world's leading producer of oil and gas, and this situation is expected to continue during the Trump administration.

Billionaires and Influence in Government
The role of billionaires like Elon Musk and others in the Trump administration will be strong. Musk has used his social platform to influence public policy and has opposed some of the administration's decisions. Trump has also appointed several billionaires to senior positions, increasing their influence in the decision-making process.

This could create tensions within the Republican Party and cause conflicts between the White House and Congress. Furthermore, the intervention of billionaires could have destabilizing consequences for American institutions and could affect domestic and foreign policy.

Global Security Under the Trump Administration
Trump has promised to resolve international crises like the one in Ukraine, but his foreign policy has been criticized for its contradictory approach. He favors bilateral agreements and has a clear sympathy for autocrats, which could create tensions on the international stage.

The crisis in Ukraine, tensions with China over Taiwan, and Iran's nuclear ambitions will be important tests of Trump's ability to manage foreign policy. He is also expected to face unforeseen challenges that could affect global dynamics.

One of the key issues will remain the issue of nuclear weapons. Trump’s policies during his first term, such as his failure to curb North Korea’s nuclear program and his withdrawal from the Iran deal, have created uncertainty about his stance on nuclear threats. As James M. Lindsay has written, maintaining a noncommittal stance while promising tough action against opponents may work during the campaign, but it will be more difficult in government.


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