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Shocking poll: Western countries think World War III is imminent

2026-02-13 19:18:19Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Shocking poll: Western countries think World War III is imminent
A Spanish military ship in the port of the naval base in Kiel, Germany.

Western countries are increasingly believing that the world is heading towards a global war, reflecting growing public alarm about the risk and cost of a new era of conflict.

In a Politico poll of the five countries involved, the US, Canada, the UK, France and Germany, the vast majority of respondents think the world is becoming more dangerous.

The outbreak of World War III is seen as most likely within the next five years by respondents.

The percentage of voters predicting a new global conflict has increased significantly since March 2025, when the question was asked by independent pollsters Public First.

“The shift in Western public attitudes in less than a year reflects a dramatic shift towards a more uncertain world, where war is seen as likely and alliances are unstable,” said Seb Wride, head of polling at Public First.

But the Politico poll also revealed a limited willingness of the Western public to make financial sacrifices for increased military spending.

While there is broad support in principle for increasing defense budgets in the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Canada, this support drops sharply when people are informed that this could mean more national debt, cuts to other services, or tax increases.

“Our polls show that growing concern about war does not give leaders permission to spend recklessly on defense,” Wride said. “In fact, voters are now less willing to accept the compromises needed to improve military security. So European leaders are left in a bind — unable to rely on the U.S., unable to use that as a reason to invest domestically, and under greater pressure to find urgent solutions in a world where conflict seems closer than ever.”

The findings, based on surveys of more than 2,000 voters in each country between February 6 and 9, highlight the challenge facing NATO leaders as they try to strengthen security at a time when public finances are tight.

This battle will influence discussions among politicians from around the world as they gather in Germany for the annual Munich Security Conference, which begins on Friday.

With no sign of an imminent end to Russia's four-year all-out war against Ukraine, and with the US taking military action in Iran, Syria, Venezuela and Africa under the presidency of Donald Trump, many voters see a growing risk of global conflict.

The pattern is particularly pronounced in the United Kingdom, where 43 percent believe a new world war is “likely” or “very likely” to break out by 2031 — up from 30 percent in March 2025.

Almost half of Americans — 46 percent — think a new world war is “likely” or “very likely” by 2031 — up from 38 percent last year.

Of the five countries, only people in Germany generally think that a third global war is unlikely to occur within the next five years.

Shocking poll: Western countries think World War III is imminent

 

Regarding individual countries' involvement in military action, respondents in the US were the most likely to believe that their country will be at war within five years, followed by respondents in the UK and France.

This suggests that NATO's nuclear powers may be more prepared for conflict than other countries, and that Trump's image as a "peace president" is not convincing voters at home.

At least one in three people in the US, UK, France and Canada believe that the use of a nuclear weapon in a war within the next five years is likely or very likely.

Russia is seen as the biggest threat to peace in Europe, while Canadians see Trump's America as the biggest security risk. In France, Germany and the UK, the second biggest threat is perceived to be the US, cited much more often than China.

How much will it cost?

Majorities of voters in France, Germany, the United Kingdom and Canada said their country should spend more on defense, with this sentiment strongest in the United Kingdom and Canada.

But the question is how to pay for it. The Politico poll found that support for increased defense spending drops when people are asked to consider whether funding should come from cuts to other budgets, increased government borrowing or tax increases.

The French and German public is now less inclined to support higher defense budgets within the framework of these compromises than last year.

In Germany, defense spending was among the least popular uses of public money, trailing only foreign aid.

In 2025, 40 percent of the French public and 37 percent of the German public said they would support increasing defense spending when trade-offs were mentioned. This year, support fell to just 28 percent in France and 24 percent in Germany.

Both countries are now more likely to oppose increased defense spending when they have to consider how to pay the bill.

The poll also showed that there is considerable public skepticism towards the creation of a standing EU army under a single central command, an idea mentioned by the European Commission.

The proposal received support from only 22 percent of people in Germany and 17 percent in France.

Compulsory military service was most popular in Germany and France, where about half of people support the idea./ Politico


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