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Putin's goal failed. Europe was saved from a warm winter

2023-01-08 18:06:12Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Putin's goal failed. Europe was saved from a warm winter
A beachgoer looks at the Catalan beach in Marseille, January 5, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin failed with his plan to use energy as a weapon against Europe.

Mild weather, expanding supply alternatives and campaigns to reduce demand are helping to lower gas prices to pre-war levels. Europe seems to have passed the worst part of the crisis.

The combination of conditions, including the Covid waves in China, could lower inflationary pressures and improve Europe's economic forecasts, leaving the Kremlin with less revenue.

But a sudden cold snap or a supply cut can again wreak havoc.

"The risk of a total economic blow to the European industry has so far taken a turn", said the German Minister of Economy, Robert Habeck.

The crisis started by Russia has cost Europe 1 trillion dollars.

The European Union is no longer importing coal and crude oil from Russia, and gas shipments have been severely curtailed. The bloc has filled some of the gap by increasing supplies from Norway and shipments of liquefied natural gas from Qatar, the US and other producers.

In Germany, storage facilities are about 91% full, compared to 54% a year ago, when Russia had already emptied the facilities it controlled. Chancellor Olaf Scholz's government has since nationalized Gazprom PJSC's domestic units and spent billions of euros to replenish reserves.

Energy-saving measures by industry and households, as well as warmer January temperatures, have also helped.

"We are very optimistic, in the fall we weren't like that," Klaus Mueller, the head of Germany's network regulator, said in an interview with public broadcaster ARD on Friday. "The more gas we have in the storage facilities at the beginning of the year, the less stress and cost we will face in filling them again for the next winter."

Favorable conditions and expanding renewable capacity are also helping. Higher wind and solar output will help cut gas-fired power generation in 10 of Europe's largest energy markets by 39% this year, according to S&P Global.

The dynamic has shifted to such an extent that there is now a lot of LNG coming in, according to Morgan Stanley. Shipments set a new record in December and the trend is likely to continue.

Germany, once the biggest buyer of Russian gas, is opening three terminals this winter and Europe's biggest economy expects its new LNG facilities to cover about a third of its previous requirements. Steady supplies from non-Russian sources are likely to keep market prices from rising to last year's highs./Bloomberg


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