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Experts warn: The consequences of China's silence on the spy balloon are serious

2023-02-10 09:06:28Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

Experts warn: The consequences of China's silence on the spy balloon are

Outrage over China's decision to encroach on the airspace of dozens of countries, gathering intelligence through a fleet of surveillance balloons, has raised concerns in Washington about Beijing's behavior. These actions by China may prompt stronger reactions in future incidents.

In the Pentagon, in particular, senior US defense officials warn that the Chinese military's refusal to communicate after the United States downed the spy balloon is, in some ways, more alarming than the act of espionage itself.

"This is really dangerous," Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Ely Ratner told lawmakers Thursday.

"We continue to be open to talks", he added. "Unfortunately, to date, the People's Liberation Army (of China) is not responding to our calls."

Concern in the Pentagon has been growing in recent months, from the Defense Secretary to lower-level officials, who have expressed an increasing willingness to discuss their Chinese counterparts' repeated reluctance to keep the lines open. of communication that can be used in cases of crisis.

The need for communication between the United States and China

Last month, US diplomatic sources said China refused to use the de-confliction line after an unsafe air strike by Chinese planes against US ones over the South China Sea a month ago.

And a meeting last November between US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe during a meeting of Asian defense officials in Cambodia also failed to convince the Chinese military to establish emergency communications channels.

"Over the last several months, the Chinese military has continued to see the relationship with our military as something that they turn on and off to express displeasure with other things that are going on," Mr. Ratner told members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. with Outside.

"We have to communicate our priorities. Our armies must have serious conversations about strategic issues," he said. "This continues to be a problematic issue."

US defense officials have said that America's partners and allies are also increasingly angry at Beijing's refusal to find ways to communicate during potential crises. Other countries in the region have expressed the same concern.

"The key point about this is that countries have to act responsibly," Pentagon spokesman Brigadier General Patrick Ryder told reporters Wednesday when asked about communications issues.

"We have always been and will remain open to communication in an effort to avoid incidents," he said, adding, "We will continue to keep the lines of communication open."

US officials and former officials note that China's refusal to communicate contrasts with the behavior of other major powers, which, despite conflict and tensions, have agreed to establish special lines of communication to avoid conflict, to at least to exchange messages.

"In the previous administration and in this administration, the secretary of state could be on the phone with his Russian counterpart at any time," former US special envoy for Syria Joel Rayburn told VOA.

"This opportunity to talk to each other has always existed for the military, the senior military representatives, the military representatives in uniform," said Rayburn, who is now an international affairs expert at New America in Washington.

"This was extremely useful at times when there were tensions or there were obvious potential red lines and warnings, de-escalation messages or clarifications of intent could be given."

Lines of conflict avoidance between the United States and Russia

The United States and Russia have used at least two separate lines of conflict avoidance over the past decade.

The first, established in October 2015, was initially intended to prevent conflict or collisions between Russian and American aircraft operating in Syrian airspace.

And despite some minor hiccups, U.S. defense officials said the deconfliction line with Russia on Syria continued to be up and running until June of last year.

The United States and Russia created a second line of conflict avoidance in March 2022 after the start of Russian aggression in Ukraine, although the Pentagon has not used it often.

The Chinese military's refusal to establish such a line of communication since the time of former President Trump's administration is irresponsible, says Mr. Rayburn. "This probably implies that the Chinese would not want a communication channel to prevent tactical situations from escalating. This is not a good thing.”

Other former US officials see the Chinese military's refusal to establish deconfliction lines with the Pentagon as more a function of how the Chinese military operates than a malicious intent.

"I think they're doing this because they don't have a good mechanism within their government to share information between different departments within it," said John Schaus, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

But the increase in the number of incidents and their severity could force the Chinese military to change its communication style or face the consequences of an unintended escalation.

"I hope that the current situation serves as a lesson for the leadership in China," says American expert Schaus about the consequences of the downing of the Chinese balloon by the United States.

"If we were in a much more intense crisis, the situation could be very dangerous," he said./VOA


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