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A growing wave of anxiety: Why are European defense ministers talking about war in Europe?

2024-01-26 22:26:19Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
A growing wave of anxiety: Why are European defense ministers talking about war
Leopard 2 tank, sent from Germany to Ukraine

A wave of anxiety has gripped European defense ministers and military chiefs as politicians and military leaders believe NATO-skeptic Donald Trump could be elected the next US president – ​​and that Russia cannot be forced to leave or be defeated in Ukraine. This hasty approach has prompted growing warnings that Europe could become embroiled in a war with Russia, even as Russia is currently involved in Ukraine.

At the same time, tensions in the Middle East have continued to rise. Israel's attack on Gaza continues; hostilities with Iran-linked Hezbollah in Lebanon grow; and the US and UK launched bombing raids on Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen to stop raids on ships in the Red Sea.

What do politicians and generals say?

Admiral Rob Bauer, chairman of NATO's military committee, said last week that "it was not clear that we are at peace" and that was "the reason why we are preparing for a conflict with Russia and terrorist groups if it comes to of", before NATO launches what it says is its biggest exercise in decades, involving 90,000 troops.

Grant Shapps, the British defense secretary, used even stronger language, arguing that the peace dividend of the cold war was over and that the UK and its allies were "moving from a post-war world to a pre-war world ” with idealism replaced by “stubborn realism”. It was time, he argued, for rearmament to protect Europe from "Putin's fury".

Boris Pistorius, the German defense minister, gave an interview last week suggesting that while a Russian attack was unlikely at the moment "our experts expect a period of five to eight years in which this could be possible". Europe, he added, “was facing a military threat situation ... that had not existed for 30 years.

Norway and Sweden also issued similar warnings last month.

Isn't this just intimidation by the military who want more money?

Planning for war, a distant contingency, is what armies do, and there is always pressure from generals and defense ministries to spend more. But the war in Ukraine - which will be two years old next month - is depleting Western ammunition stocks.

Meanwhile, it looks increasingly likely that the US Congress will not vote on a new $61 billion military aid package for Ukraine, as Republicans increase pressure on a reciprocal exchange agreement to increase security on the US southern border. -'s.

A wave of Western weapons so far given to Ukraine, including German Leopard 2 and British Challenger 2 tanks; American Bradley fighting vehicles; American, British, and French long-range rocket artillery, as well as artillery ammunition and shells, have failed to break through the Russian front line. And, if future US military aid were to stop as a result of the impasse in Congress, Europe would scramble to fill the arms gap.

Experts fear that without the US, Russia may gradually reverse the situation

At the same time, Trump appears determined to sweep the Republican nomination after early wins in Iowa and New Hampshire. Memories of his previous presidency linger in Europe, amid questions about his close relationship with Putin and his threat at a 2018 NATO summit that the US could "go it alone" and leave if countries others do not increase their military spending for the Alliance.

What could this mean for NATO?

Manfred Weber, head of the conservative European People's Party in the European Parliament, used an interview with Politico on Thursday to promote the idea that the EU should take over from NATO in defending the continent, proposing "a European defense pillar" that it should include a nuclear umbrella, provided by France, as the only nuclear-weapon state in the EU. "When I look at this year as a European politician, the first thing that comes to mind is Trump," he said.

There is talk among some EU politicians of the need to create an EU defense commissioner, but the reality is that this maneuver is unlikely to replace NATO, whose members with large armies include the United Kingdom ( whose nuclear weapons have been promised to the alliance) and Turkey as well as the US. NATO members are more likely to try to cool off and endure a Trump presidency, as they have since 2016.

Could there really be a wider war with Russia?

General Sir Patrick Sanders, the head of the British army, suggested that the UK's professional army was too small to last long in an all-out war with Russia and that a "citizen's army" would be needed to win one, leaving to understand a return to recruitment in a full emergency. Although that scenario was dismissed by the British government as hypothetical and "not useful", other European countries such as Latvia and Sweden have revived forms of military service and Pistorius said in December that he was "considering all options".

But it is far from clear whether Russia, as aggressive as Putin wants to be, would have the capacity to attack NATO member states. It is estimated by Western intelligence that 315,000 Russians have been killed or wounded in Ukraine, and Moscow's forces have repeatedly failed to penetrate its smaller neighbor. The anxiety about losing American support may be real, but the threat is not that significant. / Source: TheGuardian


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