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An infectious disease represents the biggest threat in 2025

2025-01-02 22:48:18Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

An infectious disease represents the biggest threat in 2025

The coronavirus pandemic was a landmark health event in history. Now, the virus that caused a pandemic four years ago has been reduced to the level of the common cold thanks to effective vaccines. The scientific community, however, believes that a new threat to humanity is emerging. The only question is which pathogen will cause it and when.

Three infectious diseases are of great concern to public health experts: malaria (a parasite), HIV (a virus), and tuberculosis (a bacterium). Together, the three cause about two million deaths worldwide each year. At the same time, however, in the list of “dangerous” pathogens that are candidates for a new pandemic, one virus stands out more and more. It is H5N1, which causes bird flu.

The virus has spread widely in both wild and domestic birds. Recently, an alarm has been sounded due to its spread among cows in several American states, as well as among horses in Mongolia, but also in many other mammal species. It is characteristic that at least 875 herds of cows in 16 federal states have tested positive for bird flu.

When cases start to rise in animals like birds, there's always the concern about the virus — in this case, H5N1 — being transmitted to humans. Namely, bird flu can infect humans, with 61 cases recorded in the U.S. this year. These are mostly farm workers who came into contact with infected animals or people who drank unpasteurized milk.


Compared to the minimal number of human infections in previous years, this number represents a significant increase. Combined with a 30 percent mortality rate associated with human infections, bird flu becomes a real priority for public health experts.

Only one mutation is needed to enable human-to-human transmission, reports the "Ygeia mou" portal.

Fortunately, H5N1 does not appear to be transmitted from person to person, making it significantly less likely to cause a pandemic in humans. Flu viruses must attach to molecular structures called sialic acid receptors on the surface of cells in order to enter and begin to multiply.

Flu viruses that are specifically adapted for humans recognize these receptors very well, which makes it easier for them to enter cells and spread between people. In contrast, bird flu is specifically adapted for bird receptors and has some incompatibility when it “binds” with human receptors. Thus, in its current form, bird flu cannot spread easily between people.

However, a recent study showed that just one mutation in the H5N1 virus genome could make it capable of spreading from person to person, greatly increasing the likelihood of causing a pandemic.

“We are just one mutation away,” commented renowned infectious disease professor Sotiris Tsiodras, speaking at a recent National Organization for Public Health (EODY) conference on bird flu, adding that this mutation could take several years to occur.

If this strain of bird flu makes such a transition and begins to spread between people, governments will need to act quickly to control the spread. Centers for Disease Control around the world have developed pandemic preparedness plans for bird flu and other potential diseases. For example, the United Kingdom has purchased five million doses of the H5 vaccine that can protect against bird flu, all in preparation for a possible threat in 2025.


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