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Possible Turkey-Greece war? What American military experts warn

2022-09-11 17:04:22Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Possible Turkey-Greece war? What American military experts warn
Possible Turkey-Greece war?

Turkey and Greece, both NATO members, have been at odds for decades over territorial and air claims in the Aegean Sea.

As the historic rivals escalate the controversy, analysts warn of the risk of current tensions spilling over into NATO at a time when the alliance needs unity in the face of Russia's aggression against Ukraine.

The latest clashes began when Turkey accused its neighbor of pointing the radars of its Russian-made S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems in Crete at Turkish warplanes. Ankara also said Greek pilots pointed radar at Turkish jets over the eastern Mediterranean during a NATO mission last month.

Athens rejected the Turkish claims and accused Ankara of violating its airspace.

Both countries lodged complaints with NATO about the incidents, and the subsequent deletion of a tweet by NATO's Land Command (LANDCOM) congratulating Turkey on Victory Day sparked outrage in Ankara.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan fueled the controversy when he spoke earlier this week at Teknofest, an event billed as Turkey's largest aviation and aerospace fair.

"Remember history. If you continue like this, you will pay a heavy price. Don't forget Izmir," he said, alluding to a defeat of Greek forces in the western city in 1922.

He echoed those words earlier this week, warning that "Turkey could come all of a sudden one night."

His comments were perceived by Greek officials as threats to take military action against the Aegean islands. Athens says it is ready to defend its sovereignty.

Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias urged NATO, its European Union partners and the United Nations to formally condemn what he described as "fierce and increasingly aggressive polemics by Turkish officials" in letters to three international bodies, copies of which were provided by The Associated Press.

In a statement sent to VOA, a State Department representative called on the two allies to resolve their differences diplomatically.

Citing Russian aggression in Ukraine, Washington said statements that could raise tensions between NATO allies are "particularly unhelpful," adding that "Greece's sovereignty over the islands is not in question."

The Pentagon said Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin had emphasized the need to reduce tensions in the Aegean through constructive dialogue during his previous talks with Greek and Turkish counterparts.

War possible?

Deep-rooted tensions have brought Turkey and Greece to the brink of war three times in the past 50 years.

Analysts tell VOA they don't see a quick fix, pointing to the troubled history of bilateral relations

"It would take a skilled and influential mediator to be able to come up with a proposal that both countries can agree to. But I don't see such a thing on the horizon," says Jim Townsend, former US deputy assistant secretary of defense for European and NATO policy, for VOA.

Mr. Townsend is currently a senior fellow in the Transatlantic Security Program of the Center for a New American Security.

Philip Breedlove, a retired US Air Force general who served as NATO's supreme commander from 2013 to 2016, said the old problems between Turkey and Greece ebb and flow from time to time.

"The leadership in Turkey is pushing the country in certain directions that have caused these tensions to rise once again, as has happened over the years," argued the former top NATO commander in a telephone interview with VOA.

General Breedlove, who is now a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said NATO and the United States have managed similar tensions in the past.

Concerns about cracks in NATO unity

The latest clash between Turkey and Greece comes as NATO has focused efforts on presenting a united front against Russia in the face of aggression in Ukraine.

Experts are concerned that if tensions escalate to the point of conflict, Russian President Vladimir Putin could benefit.

"Whatever slight cracks may appear in European unity, Putin can make them bigger. So this would not only harm European unity, but it could penetrate NATO, if one country or another uses NATO as a weapon to hurt the other", says Mr. Toënsend.

He warns that those cracks could be exploited by Moscow as winter approaches; Russia has already cut its gas exports to Europe.

Electoral dynamics

Turkey and Greece each have crucial elections next year. Turkish President Erdogan is considered to be facing a major challenge to his 20-year rule amid the country's economic problems and immigration problems.

Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, elected in 2019, appears to have suffered a loss of popularity in part due to rising energy prices, driven in large part by the war in Ukraine.

"The rhetoric from both sides has always been part of the problem and it's something that doesn't help," says Mr Townsend.

General Breedlove agrees. He believes that some of the recent controversies are due to "the effect of internal audiences".

Balancing act

The United States is known to have maintained a balance between regional rivals, stating that both Turkey and Greece are important NATO allies.

Athens and Washington renewed a bilateral military agreement for five years, and the deal was ratified by the Greek parliament in the summer, days before the Greek prime minister was due to visit Washington in mid-May.

The deal gives the United States more military access to Greek bases. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley met with his Greek counterpart, Konstantinos Floros, at the Pentagon in July. "The military leaders discussed matters of mutual interest," a statement from his office said.

This visit was followed by Greek Defense Minister Nikolaos Panagiotopoulos' visit to the Pentagon on July 18 to meet with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin. They discussed "the growing defense partnership between the United States and Greece and close cooperation on bases, [and] defense modernization," according to a statement from the Pentagon.

They also discussed "the need to reduce tensions in the Aegean through constructive dialogue."

Zoti Austin foli me homologun e tij turk, Hulusi Akar, më 25 korrik, duke diskutuar “nevojën për përpjekje të vazhdueshme për të reduktuar tensionet në Egje përmes dialogut konstruktiv”.

Kërkesat turke dhe greke për mbrojtjen

Greqia po kërkon të blejë avionë luftarakë F-35 nga Shtetet e Bashkuara. Vendi i kërkoi zyrtarisht avionët luftarakë në qershor. Turqia u përjashtua nga programi F-35 për shkak të blerjes së një sistemi të avancuar me raketa S-400 nga Rusia. Ankaraja dëshiron të blejë F-16 dhe paisje modernizimi nga Uashingtoni. Shitjet e armëve nga Shtetet e Bashkuara në vendet e huaja i nënshtrohen miratimit të Kongresit. Analistët argumentojnë se vendimi i Turqisë për të blerë sistemin rus S-400 ishte një goditje e madhe për bashkëpunimin e mbrojtjes midis Uashingtonit dhe Ankarasë, i cili sipas tyre ka qenë tradicionalisht shumë i fortë.

Zoti Townsend, i cili ka punuar për 30 vjet në Pentagon me çështjet e Turqisë, i thotë Zërit të Amerikës se shpreson që marrëdhëniet e ngushta me Turqinë, të rikthehen.

Ai shpreson se Shtetet e Bashkuara do të jenë në gjendje të ofrojnë F-16 të kërkuara nga Turqia, dhe se administrata amerikane- duke punuar me Kongresin – do të jetë në gjendje të lejojë që të realizohet një gjë e tillë.

Gjenerali në pension i Forcave Ajrore ka të njëjtën shpresë.

“Kërcënimi i përbashkët”

Ish-komandanti i NATO-s argumenton se Turqia mori disa vendime sigurie që e afronin atë me “armikun e NATO-s”, duke iu referuar blerjes së S-400 nga Rusia, e cila u identifikua si kërcënimi më domethënës dhe i drejtpërdrejtë për sigurinë e aleatëve në dokumentin e konceptit strategjik të NATO-s.

“Armiku nuk është Greqia kundër Turqisë dhe Turqia kundër Greqisë. Është NATO kundër Rusisë. Ne duhet të kuptojmë se kush është armiku,” i tha zoti Breedlove Zërit të Amerikës.

Ai tha se Shtetet e Bashkuara do të donin të vazhdonin bashkëpunimin me Turqinë, sepse ajo është një pjesë shumë e rëndësishme e aleancës së NATO-s, pavarësisht zbehjes së fundit të marrëdhënieve, duke shtuar se ai nuk mund të flasë për politikën e qeverisë aktuale amerikane.

Por ai pranoi gjithashtu se “Greqia është më pranë linjës që Amerika do që të ndjekë në rajon”, duke thënë se Uashingtoni do të dëshironte të kishte të njëjtin lloj marrëdhëniesh me Turqinë.

Ai u bën thirrje Shteteve të Bashkuara dhe Turqisë që të fokusohen në mënyrën se si mund të rikthejnë të njëjtin nivel bashkëpunimi në vend që të largohen nga njëri-tjetri.

Kritika e Presidentit Erdogan për politikën e Perëndimit ndaj Rusisë

Ndërkohë, zoti Erdogan ka akuzuar së fundmi vendet perëndimore se po provokojnë Rusinë, pa përmendur emra.

Duke folur në një konferencë shtypi në Serbi, ai sugjeroi se “politika e Perëndimit ndaj Rusisë bazohej në provokime.” Ai u zotua të vazhdojë politikën balancuese të Turqisë midis Rusisë dhe Ukrainës, duke shtuar se Rusia nuk është një vend që mund të nënvlerësohet.

“Rusia ka ndërprerë gazin natyror. Çmimet në Evropë kanë shkuar në qiell. Të gjithë tani po shqetësohen se si do ta kalojnë dimrin,” tha zoti Erdogan.

Turkey supplies Ukraine with combat drones, which are used by Kiev to destroy Russian targets in the conflict. Ankara also played a role with the United Nations as a mediator to secure the agreement that allowed the resumption of wheat exports from ports in Ukraine. But it has not joined the Western sanctions against Russia./ VOA


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