
The sudden influx of tens of thousands of migrants towards Ceuta, a Spanish territory in North Africa, recalled scenes of chaos and despair on the coasts of Greece and Italy in 2015.
That crisis, when over a million people, mainly from the Middle East, entered Southern Europe, strengthened opposition to immigration and gave a boost to the far right.
Once again, its leaders in Britain, France and Italy presented the situation in Ceuta as evidence of the danger that, in their view, Spain's more liberal immigration policy poses. But the main difference is that these forces are no longer on the periphery, they are now in power or close to it.
Centrist leaders, fearing political backlash, have adopted some of the harsher language and policies on borders. In little more than a decade, the far right has reshaped the European narrative on migration.
“If centrist leaders give the impression that they are overreaching on these issues, they lose control of the debate,” said François Gemenne, a migration and climate expert at HEC Paris. “Therefore they feel compelled to appear very strong on border control.”
Centrist leaders, from Denmark to France, quickly condemned the influx into Ceuta and promised to strengthen their borders, even though most of the new arrivals were returned to Morocco within hours.
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen even called for Spain's suspension from the Schengen area to be reviewed. Her response echoed statements by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who said images from Ceuta showed that irregular and uncontrolled immigration posed a concrete threat.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has called on Morocco to immediately accept the irregular migrants. The stance is a far cry from Angela Merkel's approach in 2015, when she declared that Germany "could cope" with the influx of refugees from Syria. Many of them are now European citizens and part of the societies where they live.
These reactions point to a general tightening of European migration policies. Spain, under its leftist government, is now seen as an exception. Countries once considered more welcoming, such as Sweden, have tightened rules on asylum and permanent residence. Meanwhile, more aggressive measures at sea have significantly reduced maritime migration compared to 2015.
Analysts say the harsh tone is also linked to the power of dramatic imagery. Even without a repeat of the 2015 crisis, images of small boats on the British coast or young people climbing over fences in Spanish territory have a strong impact on public opinion.
“The problem is the apparent lack of control,” said Sunder Katwala, director of the British Future think tank. “This directly affects the core voters of populist parties.”
The number of migrants crossing the English Channel in small boats has fallen sharply this year, but the anti-immigration British party Reform UK continues to lead most polls. In Europe, net migration fell in 2025 in Britain, Germany and Spain, while there was a slight increase in France and Italy.
"The visible things are seen and reported; the invisible ones are not," Katwala said of the chaos in Ceuta.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez remains one of the few centrist or left-wing leaders publicly attempting to maintain a more welcoming stance. His government has allowed over a million undocumented migrants to apply for regular status.
Accused of these policies fueling the crisis in Ceuta, Sánchez said it was possible to welcome migrants while keeping the border under control. He noted that, from 2021 to 2025, more irregular entries into the EU occurred through Italy, the Western Balkans and Greece than through Spain. He added that most of the people who crossed into Ceuta on Thursday had left by Saturday.
Sánchez said this was achieved in close coordination with Moroccan authorities and with little support from other European states, while Spain continues a migration policy that aims to be both effective and solidarity-based.
The memory of 2015 remains strong in Europe. The influx from Syria, Afghanistan and elsewhere changed the political landscape: Britain voted to leave the EU, the Alternative for Germany party gained ground by exploiting fears of uncontrolled immigration, while Marine Le Pen reached the second round of the 2017 French presidential election.
Le Pen has made the Spanish crisis a potential campaign theme, calling for an immediate tightening of controls at French borders. Her deputy, Jordan Bardella, claimed that the regularization of the status of hundreds of thousands of undocumented migrants from Spain has “opened the doors of Europe to every danger.”
In Britain, Nigel Farage warned that migrants entering Ceuta could head to Calais and then to Britain. The continued focus on immigration also contributed to the political downfall of former Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who resigned last month after public discontent, partly because he failed to convince voters that he was tackling illegal crossings across the English Channel.
Although Starmer toughened his rhetoric and saw a decline in immigration during his term, he failed to capitalize on this politically.
The New York Times