
The ceasefire talks in the Gaza Strip are entering their most delicate phase today, with the arrival of the American delegation led by mediator Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Donald Trump's son-in-law and for years a link between the US president and Benjamin Netanyahu, as well as the Prime Minister of Qatar, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al Thani. The entry on the scene of these three figures follows that of other characters, whom only those who do not know the functioning of diplomacy can call "secondary": the heads of the secret services of intermediary countries such as Egypt and Turkey, as well as the head of COGAT, the Israeli army structure in charge of managing humanitarian aid to Gaza.
It was precisely their presence, according to sources from Sharm el-Sheikh, that has pushed the parties towards some concessions. However, the knots that remain to be resolved are still numerous. In particular, an Egyptian official told Reuters that Hamas has agreed to lay down its arms, but only in return for guarantees that Israel will not resume the war after the release of 48 hostages taken during the attack on October 7, 2023, of whom 20 are believed to be still alive. This is a point on which at least two previous rounds of negotiations have already been blocked.
And that is not the only issue. The movement also demands the release of Marwan Barghouti, the leader of the Second Intifada, imprisoned for more than twenty years, while Israeli Minister of National Security Itamar Ben Gvir has vetoed his name. Most recently, the exclusion of former British Prime Minister Tony Blair from the authority that will lead Gaza during the transition phase has also been demanded — and Trump himself will most likely say “no” to this. However, it seems that preliminary agreements have already been reached for the release of hostages and the distribution of humanitarian aid.
What will happen in the coming hours? Officially, “cautious optimism” emanates from Benjamin Netanyahu’s office. But last night, in his message commemorating October 7, the prime minister used far from conciliatory tones: “We will continue to act to achieve the objectives of the war: the return of all hostages, the elimination of the Hamas government, and the guarantee that Gaza will never again pose a threat,” he said.
In the face of such statements, here in Israel, the most prominent analysts are warning against easy illusions. “Everything could still fail. Some senior Israeli officials are convinced that there is no chance that Hamas will release all the hostages in the initial phase.” And not only that: “The Trump plan foresees that Hamas will have no role in the future of Gaza, but if this deal goes ahead, given the way it is structured, we will have to continue to deal with Hamas for a long time,” writes Naydal Eyal in Yedioth Ahronoth. Is Netanyahu willing to accept this? Many here doubt it, especially considering that more than 60 percent of voters think that the prime minister should resign as soon as the crisis is over. And he knows it very well.
In this context, the determining factor remains Donald Trump. The US president reiterated yesterday that there is a “real possibility” of reaching an agreement. A crucial element is that the Nobel Peace Prize will be awarded in Oslo on Friday: Trump hopes to be the winner and is therefore pushing for a result as soon as possible. Yesterday, in an official statement, he thanked the families of the hostages who have publicly supported him.
According to Israeli television Channel 12, if progress is not achieved soon, the US president could put on the table a "take it or leave it" similar to the one that forced Netanyahu to accept the plan last week: the expected time, the weekend (which here falls on Friday and Saturday), with a possible start of the hostage release from Sunday./La Repubblica