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What will happen after the elections in Germany?

2025-02-25 22:32:43Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA NGA SABINE KINKARTZ & NINA WERKHäUSER
What will happen after the elections in Germany?
Friedrich Merz and Markus Söder after the results were published

The CDU/CSU is the winner in the snap parliamentary elections, while the chancellor's SPD party suffered a historic defeat. One in five Germans voted for the AfD. What does this mean?

The largest political force and the post of the next chancellor – this is what the CDU/CSU Union has achieved in the elections. “We have won these federal elections in 2025,” CDU chairman and candidate for chancellor of the Union parties, Friedrich Merz, said enthusiastically on Sunday (23.2.) in Berlin. However, there was no big celebration at the CDU headquarters, because the Union was expecting a much better result. “30 percent plus X,” was the slogan in the election campaign.

In the end, it won 28.5 percent, which means that the CDU/CSU needs another strong coalition partner. Theoretically, the AfD, which came in second, could also be a coalition partner, but Merz has ruled out the possibility of cooperation with this party. About one in five voters voted for the AfD, despite the fact that parts of the party are considered far-right by the German Office for the Protection of the Constitutional Order. “We doubled! They wanted to halve us, but the opposite happened,” AfD co-chair Alice Weidel declared triumphantly. She added that the CDU and CSU can only fulfill their election promises, such as ending irregular migration, in cooperation with the AfD. “Our hand will always be outstretched to take part in the government, to implement the will of the people, the will of Germany,” Weidel said.

What will happen after the elections in Germany?
AfD came second, but remains in opposition

But the Union parties categorically ruled out an alliance with the AfD. “We have fundamentally different positions, for example in foreign policy, security policy and in many other areas regarding Europe, NATO and the euro,” Friedrich Merz explained his refusal to cooperate with the AfD. And he added: “You can reach out to us as much as you want.” On the other hand, Weidel threatened that the AfD as the largest opposition force will put you in front.

CDU/CSU promises change in stances

The main topic of the election campaign, in addition to the weak economy, was asylum policy. “The insecurity of Germans is obvious,” said CSU chairman Markus Söder, analyzing the success of the AfD. According to him, people are not sure that the Union parties will fulfill their promises. That is why many voters are “connected” to the AfD, Söder said. “We will do our best to change the direction in Germany.”

The SPD and the Greens are seen as potential coalition partners. But the parties that have been in power so far are also struggling to process election losses. The SPD was hit particularly hard, achieving its worst result since 1890, with just 16.5 percent of the vote.

“This is a bitter election result for the SPD,” admitted acting Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius even spoke of a “devastating, catastrophic result.”

The failure of Olaf Scholz

Olaf Scholz is the only chancellor in the last five decades not to be re-elected. His coalition of the SPD, the Greens and the FDP lasted less than three years. It collapsed in November 2024 due to numerous disagreements. Scholz has announced that if the SPD participates in the next government, he will not take on any ministerial duties.

The FDP was also badly punished in the elections, failing to enter the Bundestag at all. FDP leader Christian Lindner has announced his retirement from politics. The Greens' losses are more moderate. "We achieved a solid result," said the Greens' lead candidate, Robert Habeck. "We were not punished that badly, but we wanted more and we didn't get it." If the Union parties need the Greens to enter the coalition, we are open to talks, Habeck added.

The Left is growing rapidly

Before the election, the CDU and CSU ruled out a coalition with the Left, as well as with the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which split from the Left in early 2024. The Left has made a surprise surge in recent weeks and ultimately won around 8.8 percent of the vote, one of the biggest surprises of the election. The BSW remained outside the Bundestag.

What will happen after the elections in Germany?
The Left celebrates its big victory

Judging by the latest results, the CDU/CSU Union only needs one party for a coalition – the SPD. But the negotiations will not be easy. Friedrich Merz called for the rapid formation of a government: “The outside world is not waiting for us, nor are long coalition negotiations.”

Germany needs to quickly have a new government, "so that we can be present in Europe again and so that the world can see that Germany is being governed with credibility again," Merz said.

Budget deficit

The new government's biggest challenge will be financing future budgets. Tax revenues are no longer enough to cover all government obligations. Increasing military spending, renovating dilapidated infrastructure and the country's ecological transition – all of this requires billions. Moreover, Germany is in the midst of its worst economic crisis since reunification.

These were the first federal elections since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Since then, the German government has provided around 28 billion euros in military aid to Ukraine, making Germany, after the US, its largest supporter.

However, with the arrival of US President Donald Trump, the situation has changed. The new US administration is turning its back on Europe. Washington says that further assistance to Ukraine should now be primarily the responsibility of Europeans. Europe will also have to rely more on itself in terms of defense.

International expectations from Germany

The new German government must quickly set priorities, especially if Germany wants to take on a leading role in Europe, as Merz and the CDU said in the election campaign. “Germany must take the lead in Europe again, not on its own, but together with France, Poland and a strong European Union,” said CDU Secretary General Carsten Linnemann shortly before the election.

In addition to diplomatic initiatives, this also requires major financial efforts. The main question in the negotiations for the next coalition will be where the necessary funds will be secured: through new loans or changes to the state budget? The CDU/CSU and the SPD have different views on this issue.

What will happen to the "debt brake"?

The German constitution stipulates that the state cannot spend more than it earns. Exceptions are only allowed in emergency situations, natural disasters or severe economic crises. The SPD and the Greens believe that borrowing is inevitable. The CDU candidate for chancellor Friedrich Merz, on the other hand, relies on economic growth and calls for cuts in social benefits. This is unacceptable for the SPD and for the Greens, cutting spending on climate protection would be taboo.

The new Bundestag must be constituted no later than 30 days after the elections, or by March 25. If a new government is not formed by then, the current government will remain in office with a technical mandate./ DW

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