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"El Nino" is coming! What awaits us in the coming months, experts around the world raise the alarm

2023-06-11 13:13:41Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
"El Nino" is coming! What awaits us in the coming months, experts
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On Thursday, the US Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration declared that El Nino is coming. In the last three years, this phenomenon has been dominated by another phenomenon, La Nina.

Scientists believe that this year is worrying.

The last time El Nino was at full capacity was 2016, when the world recorded its hottest year ever.

Meteorologists expect that this year's El Nino, mixed with climate change, will face the world with even higher temperatures.

Experts are also worried about what could happen to the oceans. The extent of El Nino means that waters in the eastern Pacific are warmer than usual.

However, even before El Nino started, in May, the average sea temperature was 0.1 percent higher.
This phenomenon can make climate conditions even more extreme.

"We are in unprecedented territory," said Michelle L'Heureux, a meteorologist at the Center for Climate Prediction.

This year, El Nino could result in losses of $3 trillion globally, according to a study published last month in the scientific journal Science, as extreme weather affects agricultural production, the production of other goods and helps spread disease. .

Governments in vulnerable states are taking notes.

Peru has set aside $1.06 billion to deal with damage caused by El Nino, while the cyclone-prone Philippines has set up a special government to deal with what might happen.

What causes El Niño?
El Nino is a natural climate phenomenon that warms the waters to abnormal temperatures in the eastern Pacific.

It is created when the winds that blow in the east-west direction, decrease the intensity, or take the opposite direction, changing the air pressure.

However, scientists are not 100 percent convinced that these conditions result in such a phenomenon.
In the period 2015-2016 - when the most powerful El Nino in history was recorded - underwater creatures and plants suffered badly.

Warm waters in the eastern Pacific are then carried into the atmosphere, fueling storms.
"When El Nino moves with warm waters, it moves where storms occur," said meteorologist Affil DiLiberto.

"This is the first atmospheric domino to fall."

How does El Nino affect global weather?
This change in storm activity affects the air that moves around the world, causing many other regions at that latitude to experience similar weather.

During El Niño activity, the southern United States experiences cold and wet weather, while other parts of the western US and Canada are hotter and drier.

Hurricane activity becomes more erratic as storms fail to form in the Atlantic due to changing wind direction.

However, tropical cyclones strengthen.

Some parts of the central and southern Americas face torrential rainfall, although the Amazon region usually suffers from dry climatic conditions.

Australia, on the other hand, faces extreme heat, drought and forest fires.

But El Nino could cheer the Somali Peninsula, which has faced five failed rainy seasons.
El Nino can bring that region more rain than La Nina.

Historically, both El Nino and La Nina are active approximately every two to seven years. El Nino lasts 9-12 months.
La Nina, which usually occurs when waters are coldest in the eastern Pacific, can last one to three years.

Does El Nino affect climate change?

How El Nino can affect climate change is a "big research question," DiLiberto said.

Although climate change becomes more visible when El Nino occurs - with high temperatures, or torrential rains - it is not yet known exactly whether climate change affects the phenomenon itself.

Scientists are not sure whether climate change will alter the balance between El Ninos and La Ninas, making either one more frequent or less frequent.

Scientists have said that if ocean temperatures are continuously rising, there is little chance that the cycle will change, as the basis behind the phenomenon is the same.

However, if some parts of the ocean are warmer than others, then this could affect how El Nino plays a role in changing temperatures./Reuters/


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