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Will Hezbollah go to war with Israel? Analysts are divided

2023-11-02 19:57:12Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Will Hezbollah go to war with Israel? Analysts are divided
Will Hezbollah go to war with Israel? Analysts are divided

Analysts are divided on whether the militants of Lebanon's Hezbollah group would become part of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, in a wider dimension, beyond what is currently happening, launching rockets on the Israeli-Lebanese border.

This Iranian-backed paramilitary group poses a potentially greater threat to Israel than Hamas. But if Hezbollah were to enter the war, it would likely drag Lebanon, a country with major economic problems, along with it.

On Friday, Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, is expected to deliver a speech that has raised concerns among some in Lebanon and across the Middle East.

Analysts say there is some hesitation among Hezbollah, as the group has positioned itself as the main resistance movement against Israel. So how could he stay on the sidelines of the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza?!

Benjamin Allison of the University of Texas notes Hezbollah's "tremendous arsenal of precision munitions, such as missiles and drones," unlike those possessed by Hamas.

In an article published on the website of the Lawfare institute, which deals with security issues, he wrote that Hezbollah's "smart weapons" pose a "serious threat to Israel's infrastructure and may even tempt it (Israel) to start a war to prevent danger".

Lebanon's Foreign Minister, Abdullah Bou Habib, said that neither Lebanon nor Hezbollah want war with Israel, because according to him, this would bring disaster for Lebanon, which is facing a wide economic crisis.

Lebanese analyst Dania Koleilat Khatib told VOA that Hezbollah is preparing for a "plan B" and is currently "controlling the pace" of rocket attacks being fired from both sides of the Lebanon-Israel border.

Ms. Khatib, president of the Center for Cooperation and Peacebuilding Research in Beirut, said Hezbollah is likely to go to war with Israel only on one or two occasions. One of them, according to her, would be if Israel was successful in eliminating Hamas.

"If Hamas is eradicated, they (Hezbollah) know very well that it will be their turn," she said.

The other case, according to Mrs. Khatib, would be if Israel were to bomb Lebanon.

"What Hezbollah is doing right now is to keep the Israel Defense Forces busy in the north. To confuse the intelligence sources and keep the Israelis scared. At the moment it is creating a kind of front for distraction," she said.

Rami Khoury of the American University of Beirut, speaking for the Washington-based Arab Center, said Hezbollah "enjoys respect in Israel because of its resistance and courage."

He expects Iran's main ally to maintain pressure on Israel's northern border.

"Hezbollah will continue to create problems for Israel. They are constantly testing the Israeli response, their feelings, how dynamic the troops are, or whether they are afraid. So they attack a small checkpoint somewhere, send a drone at another time, attack a soldier somewhere else. What they are trying to do is to create psychological terror and fear among the Israelis, instead of attacking them with a thousand rockets, which could happen if they go to war," says Mr. Khoury.

But Mr. Khoury still thinks it unlikely that Hezbollah will enter the war.

"I don't think they'll go into a full-scale war. Neither will the Iranians. But it's not out of the question, because if the war goes well or badly, they might join it. However, I still think it's unlikely that happen".

Maha Yahya, director of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, told The New York Times that Iran is unlikely to waste Hezbollah's strength during this period because the risk is too high with "two American aircraft carriers deployed in the Mediterranean, which can hit this group"./VOA


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