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High prices and emigration weaken consumption, VAT revenues fall

2023-04-14 08:07:10Biznes SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

High prices and emigration weaken consumption, VAT revenues fall

The fiscal results of February 2023 show that the economy has left the comfort zone with high consumption and high collection rates in the state budget, while high prices and immigration, especially of young people, are weakening consumption.

Official data from the Ministry of Finance show that the revenues from taxes and customs in February were flat compared to the same month of the previous year, while receipts from VAT, a tax on consumption, decreased by 6.7%. .

In February, tax revenues were 39.5 billion ALL, almost at the same level as in February 2022, when it was 39.4 billion ALL. Taking into account inflation, which in February 2023 was 7.1% and the expected economic growth of 2%, the real performance of tax revenues was negative.

In February, VAT collections reached 13.5 billion ALL, about 968 million ALL less than in February 2022. According to detailed data, the reduction came from both taxes and customs.

Customs VAT revenues decreased by 4.9% in February on an annual basis, while VAT collected from taxes fell by 12.7% (however, the strongest decrease in VAT in taxes is related to the increase in refunds, while gross VAT revenues - in taxes increased by 7.4%.

In contrast, gross VAT revenue at customs fell by around 5% for February on an annual basis). But, even excluding the refund, total revenues from gross VAT were down 1.6%, signaling a slowdown in consumption.

From the main taxes, the biggest increase was the income from TAP, which expanded by 24 percent, on an annual basis, influenced by the continuous increase of the minimum wage and wages in general, which in 2022 expanded by over 10%.

Income from profit tax in February increased by 5.9 percent, while for excise duty by only 3.9 percent.

Taxes from national taxes, which are mainly dominated by mining rents, decreased by 12.7 percent as a result of falling oil prices in international markets. 

Successive crises and especially the increase in prices in the last year have reduced consumption in some categories of goods, especially food.

The data from INSTAT announce that for the first two months of 2023, imports of the main food groups suffered a double-digit decrease compared to the same period last year, measured in quantity.

The biggest decrease was recorded by vegetable oils by almost 40 percent. In January-February 2023, over 4,000 tons of vegetable oils were imported compared to 6,996 tons in the same period of 2022.

Minority traders claimed that oil consumption has fallen significantly since the war in Ukraine started to increase the price.

After oil, the biggest decline has followed cereals. In the first 2 months of 2023, grain imports fell by about 33%. The wholesalers claimed that the drop in wheat imports, especially, is driven by two main factors. the first and most important is related to the shrinking population in the country.

Official data from British agencies and Eurostat suggest that by the end of last year, more than 30,000 people, most of them young, had fled the country, which is being felt in consumption.

However, total budget receipts in February were ALL 46.7 billion with an annual increase of 11.5%, helped by the disbursement of an amount of ALL 5.5 billion from donor funds that have an agreement with the Albanian government.

For two months, taxes collected a total of 88.9 billion ALL, with an increase of 4% on an annual basis.

In total, the budget revenues for the 2nd month were ALL 97.1 billion, with an annual expansion of 10.8%, influenced by the good performance of aid./monitor


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