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The IMF lowers the forecast for Albania's economic growth in 2023, prices will remain high

2023-04-11 16:59:34Biznes SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
The IMF lowers the forecast for Albania's economic growth in 2023, prices
Tirana

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reduced the forecast for the growth of the Albanian economy in 2023.

From the 2.5% that was expected in the October report, in the latest global economic overview, published today, the Fund estimates that the country's economy will grow by 2.2%.

The domestic economy is expected to accelerate to 3.3% in 2024 and remain roughly at these levels until 2028, when it is expected to expand by 3.4%, roughly in line with expectations in the October report.

Kosovo and Montenegro are the two countries that are expected to have the best economic performance in 2023, with 3.5 and 3.2% respectively. Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina will expand by 2%, while for North Macedonia the expectations are quite pessimistic, with only 1.4%.

For Albania, the IMF predicts that inflation will continue to remain high in 2023, with an average of 5%, from 6.7% that was in 2022. Inflation will decrease in the following years to go down to 3%, which is also the objective of the Bank of Albania only in 2028.

IMF: Governments to fight inflation and protect the poor

The IMF says in the global report that the anemic growth, which is present all over the globe, is related to the tightening of monetary policy aimed at reducing inflation, which has worsened financial conditions, as well as the continuation of the consequences of the war in Ukraine. Even inflation, although on the decline, is slowing down less than expected. The risks in the future have increased, as the stress of the financial system may spread, weakening the real economy.

The IMF points out that policymakers have little room to improve prospects and minimize risks.

Central banks must be consistent in their policy to curb inflation, but also be willing to adjust and use policy instruments – including addressing financial stability concerns – in line with economic developments.
Fiscal policymakers should support the actions of monetary and financial policymakers to bring inflation back to target while maintaining financial stability.

In most cases, governments should aim for austerity policies, offering targeted support to those struggling most with the cost of living crisis, the IMF recommends./Monitor

The IMF lowers the forecast for Albania's economic growth in 2023, prices


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