
The Albanian government anticipates in the next year's draft budget, an 18% increase in debt interest expenses. Interest expenses are estimated at 66.2 billion ALL or 2.8% of GDP, including in this amount the contingency for debt risks. In real terms, interest expenses will increase by 0.3 percentage points to GDP compared to the 2023 budget (based on the revision of the last normative act).
Interest expenses on the domestic debt are expected to amount to 34.5 billion ALL, increasing by 16.9% compared to the expected figures of 2023.
While the expenses for domestic debt interests are predicted to reach 26.4 billion ALL, increasing by 22.1% compared to 2023.
The Ministry of Finance has foreseen for the next year a contingency fund of 5.3 billion lek to cover the risks related to the increase in debt service expenses. The contingency fund will also increase, by 8.2% compared to the figures provided in the 2023 budget.
In the draft budget report, the government states that, taking into consideration the recent statements and decisions of the Federal Reserve and the ECB, these institutions may continue to pursue restrictive monetary policies for at least 2023 and this may continue even at the beginning of the year. 2024. As a result, a further increase in interest rates in the foreign market can be expected.
In the same way, government borrowing in the domestic market will be doubled
According to the draft budget of 2024, the total value of new borrowing expected to be financed in the domestic market is 50 billion ALL, from 25 billion planned for 2023, based on the last normative act.
For the most part, the significant change in the value of domestic borrowing is related to Eurobonds. This year, Albania yesterday issued the sixth Eurobond in its history, for a total amount of 600 million euros.
This amount is being used to finance part of the projected budget deficit for 2023 and partly to reduce the external debt, through the early repayment of part of the Eurobond that matures in 2025.
For 2024, the Government has not planned new Eurobond issues and most of the planned budget deficit will be financed through the issuance of debt instruments in the internal financial market.
According to the draft budget report, new borrowing in the domestic market is expected to be realized mainly through long-term government securities in accordance with the objectives for reducing risks, but also adapting to investors' preferences for securities.