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The strengthening of the Lek, when can we see the effects on prices?

2023-06-19 09:26:21Biznes SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

The strengthening of the Lek, when can we see the effects on prices?

The strengthening of the Lek is always making Albanian imports cheaper, despite the fact that such a thing is not yet very tangible in the development of consumer prices.

The official exchange rate between the Euro and the Lek has fallen by almost 4% only in the first 10 days of June, while the fall compared to last year is more than 12%.

The Central Bank has emphasized several times that the strengthening of the Lek was one of the reasons why Albania had lower inflation levels compared to the rest of the region and Europe.

In fact, the strong lek has started to have an impact on the drop in imported inflation during the first quarter of 2023, at the level of 8.7%.

Imported inflation for the first time in a year, marked a single digit value, influenced by the annual contraction of fuel prices and the slowdown in processed food inflation.

Imported inflation is estimated to have contributed about 25% or about 1.6 percentage points less than a quarter ago in the formation of total inflation.

This development has determined the slowdown of inflation in the Albanian economy in the first months of this year. In April, inflation fell to 4.6%, the lowest level in more than a year, while May saw a slight increase to 4.7%.

However, the new wave of strengthening of the lek, especially in the May-June period, is expected to bring new effects on the progress of consumer prices.

From the analysis of the connection of the relevant indicators with different time delays, the Bank of Albania has come to the conclusion that the Indicator of Foreign Inflationary Pressures in the economy precedes the developments in the imported inflation component by about three to five months.

This indicator is calculated as the annual growth of the foreign price index and the Nominal Effective Exchange Rate index for the corresponding month.

Since the prices in the international markets appear more stabilized, the strengthening of the Lek is expected to bring a significant decrease in the Indicator of Foreign Inflationary Pressures.

Duke marrë në konsideratë kohëvonesën e llogaritur për përcjelljen e lëvizjeve të kursit në inflacionin e importuar, është e arsyeshme të besohet se pas vjeshtës këto efekte mund të jenë më të prekshme për konsumatorët shqiptarë.

Megjithatë, inflacioni i importuar është vetëm një komponent i inflacionit në ekonomi. Banka e Shqipërisë ka theksuar vazhdimisht se presionet e brendshme inflacioniste ngelen të larta, të lidhura sidomos me rritjen e kostos së punës.

Banka e Shqipërisë konstaton se presionet e brendshme inflacioniste vazhdojnë të ushqehen nga një kërkesë e qëndrueshme dhe treg pune i fortë. Vrojtimet e bizneseve sugjerojnë një kërkesë të fortë për punëtorë dhe presione për rritjen e pagave në vijim.

According to the Bank of Albania, the sustainability of economic activity and the tight conditions in the labor market create premises for the sustainability of economic growth in the future, but also of internal inflationary pressures./ REL


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