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The last fuel shipment to Europe will arrive on April 9, risking flight cancellations this summer

2026-04-02 23:10:12Biznes SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
The last fuel shipment to Europe will arrive on April 9, risking flight
Illustrative photo

One of the world's largest oil tankers, the 250-meter-long Rong Lin Wan, is currently sailing off the coast of West Africa. When it arrives in the port of Rotterdam in the Netherlands on the afternoon of April 9, it is expected to be the last jet fuel tanker to leave the Persian Gulf bound for Europe.

The ship left Mina Al Ahmadi (Kuwait) on February 26, initially bound for Malta, and managed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz shortly before it was blocked by Iran. After it, no more aviation fuel supplies from the Middle East to Europe are expected.

The risk of fuel shortage

This development has raised serious concerns in the European airline industry. According to airline executives, by the end of April or the beginning of May, Europe could face a halving of the amount of fuel available.

Efforts to use strategic reserves and postpone refinery maintenance could delay the crisis for a few weeks, but are not considered long-term solutions.

The consequences of the conflict in the Middle East

One of the biggest effects of the US/Israeli-Iran conflict is being reflected in air transport. Although Europe does not import large quantities of crude oil from the Persian Gulf, about half of the jet fuel at European airports comes from refineries near the Strait of Hormuz. India is another important supplier, but because of the crisis hitting Southeast Asia, tankers are diverting to eastern markets, where profits are higher.

The gap between production and demand

Supplies from the US and West Africa are not enough to cover demand. Data shows that many European countries are heavily dependent on imports. For example, Italy produces about 674,000 barrels of fuel per day, but consumes almost twice that. Poland imports about 97% of its needs, Greece 82%, while Spain and Portugal about 70%.

A crisis foretold

Experts point out that this situation is not unexpected. In recent years, Europe has experienced a decline in domestic production due to refinery closures and reduced profitability of jet fuel.

Also, environmental policies favoring biofuels, still insufficient and much more costly, as well as sanctions against Russia, have further limited supply.

Decline in imports and reserves

According to analytical companies, jet fuel imports into Europe have fallen sharply, reaching their lowest levels since 2022. Meanwhile, stocks in key distribution centers such as the Amsterdam–Rotterdam–Antwerp area are already below the seasonal average.

Market in tension

Replacing these supplies is expected to be very difficult. Alternative suppliers such as South Korea and China are imposing export restrictions to protect their domestic markets. This has led to sharp fluctuations in international markets and has prompted the diversion of ships to more profitable regions.

Scenarios for the airline industry

Airlines are preparing contingency plans in case of a fuel shortage. If the situation continues, hundreds of planes could be grounded and thousands of flights canceled. Some companies are already planning to reduce their operating fleets.

Price increase

In addition to the shortage, rising prices are another major problem. The price of jet fuel has doubled in a matter of weeks, while processing costs have increased even more, weighing on airlines.

Risk for the summer season

The main concern is related to the summer months, when travel demand peaks. If the situation does not improve, airlines may be forced to reduce flights, especially to tourist destinations and islands, which are more difficult to supply.

Industry outlook and stance

Some industry leaders remain cautiously optimistic. If the conflict ends and the Strait of Hormuz reopens by April, supplies could stabilize. Otherwise, there is a risk that a significant portion of supplies could be at risk during the months of May and June.

Meanwhile, European airports report that most of them currently have normal or above-average levels of reserves, ruling out an immediate crisis for the time being. However, experts urge caution and a full assessment of production and processing capacities to cope with the coming months./ Corriere della Sera


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