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La Nina: Meteorologists warn Europe could face colder winter than last year

2024-10-06 17:14:44Aktualitet SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
La Nina: Meteorologists warn Europe could face colder winter than last year
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Parts of Europe are facing a colder winter than last year, after an extreme summer across the continent. France, great Britain and Scandinavia will be the coldest regions this October with Southeast Europe and Spain remaining warm.

Although temperatures are likely to be lower this winter than they were in part last year, meteorologists say, because of the La Niña phenomenon they may be generally warmer than long-term averages. Western and central Europe will also be hit by the end of several storms coming in from the Atlantic in the coming weeks.

Conditions in the west of Africa mean these storms are being forced to follow along the North Atlantic, and a new system could come every few days until around mid-October. This is creating significant uncertainty in weather patterns and making conditions in Europe difficult to predict over the coming weeks.

What is La Nina and will it bring a colder and wetter winter to Europe?

La Niña is a natural climate pattern that occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Oceans fall below the opposite average of the warm El Niño phase. It has widespread impacts on global weather patterns, including those in Europe.

Experts at the World Meteorological Organization predicted a 60 percent chance that La Niña conditions will appear between October and February. This winter there is expected to be a weak-to-moderate strength event with the phenomenon weakening early next year.

La Niña generally brings colder than normal temperatures across Western Europe with synopticians expecting temperatures to drop as we head towards November and December. Overall, this climate pattern also brings wetter and cooler conditions to the Alps, which can lead to more frequent and greater snowfall.

Elsewhere in Europe, weather models predict less snow than normal, except in some northern areas and central areas around the Alps. Northwest and Southeast Europe tend to be drier than usual, while Southwest Europe is generally wetter.

But as we move more away from the epicenter in the Pacific, La Niña and El Niño influences are more easily interrupted by local weather patterns. This makes their precise effects in Europe difficult to predict without two events completely the same.

The severity of other weather extremes is also being intensified by climate change. Rainfall has become more variable, deviating from historical averages and expected patterns. Human-caused increases in greenhouse gases have increased the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, according to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

With these 'normal' weather patterns changing by climate change, it can be difficult to predict what the future will bring.


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