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2026-10-29 19:07:28Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

The premature departure of Christine Lagarde from the leadership of the European Central Bank (ECB) has opened the race to choose her successor and set in motion the political calculations of Europe's major powers.

There are two main reasons behind this development: French President Emmanuel Macron's desire to influence the appointment of a new leader before the French presidential election and the possibility that Lagarde will take over the presidency of the World Economic Forum in Davos. Her term normally ends in about a year, but an early departure would change the calendar and political balance of this election.

Macron may seek to use his remaining time in office to influence the selection of the next ECB leader. If the French presidential election in the spring brings a political shift and Marine Le Pen or another far-right figure comes to power, France may have less opportunity to influence the process.

For this reason, appointing Lagarde's successor before the elections would be politically important for Macron. Although no country has the right to veto such an appointment, France's weight in European institutions makes it difficult to make such a decision without the support of Paris.

Another explanation relates to Lagarde's own professional future. She may be interested in taking over the leadership of the World Economic Forum, the organization that holds the annual meeting of political, economic and technological elites in Davos. Given that the organization currently has no leader, this possibility could be an attractive alternative for her. However, leaving such an important institution as the ECB to lead an international forum would raise questions about institutional responsibility and commitment to the public mandate.

The main criticism of Lagarde is related to the long-standing uncertainty about her goals. At a time when Europe is facing wars, the risk of a return to inflation, trade tensions, instability in debt markets and rapid technological change, the leadership of the central bank requires clarity and continuity. The ECB plays a crucial role in setting interest rates and maintaining price stability in the eurozone. Therefore, uncertainty about the future of its leader could add to the concerns of governments and financial markets.

In the race to succeed Lagarde, the two main names are Pablo Hernández de Cos, former governor of the Bank of Spain and currently president of the Bank for International Settlements, and Klaas Knot, former governor of the Dutch Central Bank. Both have extensive experience in monetary policy and are considered candidates with strong technical background. Knot was until recently seen as the favorite, but Hernández de Cos' chances have increased in recent days. However, the race remains open and the possibility that another candidate will ultimately emerge as a compromise between member countries cannot be ruled out.

One of the most complicated issues is the agreement between France and Germany on other important posts in the ECB's leadership, especially that of chief economist and that of head of market operations. France wants to have influence in determining the bank's economic policy, while Germany may oppose a configuration in which the presidency belongs to Spain and the post of chief economist to a French candidate. This negotiation shows that the choice will not be determined only by the professional skills of the candidates, but also by political and national balances within the European Union.

The situation is made even more delicate by France's financial difficulties and the weakening of market confidence in its public debt. If France were to need support from the ECB in the coming months, the relationship between the French government and the central bank's leadership would be particularly sensitive. This makes it all the more important that Lagarde's successor enjoys credibility, independence and broad European support.

The race to lead the ECB is more than a choice for a key financial post. It reflects the rivalry between European powers, the political interests of France and Germany, and the need to maintain trust in shared institutions. The challenge for European leaders will be to choose a leader with experience and authority, without turning the process into a clash of national interests. In a period of economic and political uncertainty, a delayed or divisive appointment would damage Europe's image and confidence in its ability to act unitedly.

Corriere della Sera


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