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The battle for Vlora, the race remains open for one mandate: Surprise from Himara and the role of Agron Shehaj

2025-05-02 22:01:00Politikë SHKRUAR NGA GJERGJ EREBARA
The battle for Vlora, the race remains open for one mandate: Surprise from
Vlora

The Socialist Party easily won the elections in the Vlora region in 2017 and 2021, but luck played a big role in the eighth of the 12 mandates in the region. While the SP claims that it will also get a ninth mandate, the chances are that the eighth mandate itself is at stake for the Socialists.

The Vlora region sends 12 MPs to the Albanian Parliament and, since the 1997 tragedy, has voted overwhelmingly for the Socialist Party. The peak for the Socialist Party was in 2017, when they won 66,000 votes, or 60%, while the best result for the opposition was in 2009, when the PD-led coalition won less than 40,000 votes, or 37%. And while no one doubts the Socialists’ victory in this region, the size of the victory could determine whether the result between the two parties will be 8 to 4 or 7 to 5. And, at least the outcome of the 2021 elections, and the local government elections in Himara in 2023 and 2024, seems to make an eighth mandate for the Socialists not entirely guaranteed.

In the 2021 elections, the Socialists lost almost 7 thousand votes compared to the 2017 elections, while the Democratic Party won almost 9 thousand votes, and yet, the final percentage result, 58 to 32%, gave the Socialists eight mandates and the Democrats, 4. In short, the Socialists won 67% of the mandates in this district with 58% of the votes. The imbalance in question is explained by the votes of the Socialist Movement for Integration, the party that has now been renamed the Freedom Party. This party received 6,200 votes in the 2021 elections, very few compared to the 7,400 votes with which the Socialists won their eighth mandate, but which, if the DP and the SMI had competed together, would have been enough to snatch this mandate from the Socialists, dividing the district 7 to 5.

The Vlora region is particularly complex with local sensitivities playing a determining role in the outcome. The Cham population on the one hand and the Greek minority on the other are two important factors. In the 2009 elections, the DP secured its additional mandate from its ally, the Justice, Integration and Unity Party, while the SP secured its seventh mandate thanks to the Union for Human Rights party, at that time in alliance with the Socialists, today in alliance with the DP. Another minority party, MEGA, has long supported the Socialists and its base is located in Saranda, but in the meantime, a problem has arisen for the Socialists from the conflict with Himara, the proud historical region, whose voters elected Fredi Beleri in the 2023 local government elections, while in the repeated elections in August 2024, the town and surrounding villages again voted for the opposition candidate Petro Gjikuria, who is today a candidate for the opposition.

If the Socialists want to get 9 out of 12 seats, then they will need to get 75% of the votes, if the opposition runs together and, depending on the split and burned votes of the opposition parties, something less than that. After all, the Socialists could not get 9 seats even in 2017, when the DP and LSI ran separately and when the SP scored its highest point in the region with 65 thousand votes and 60%.

Much will depend on the distribution of votes between the main opposition and other opposition parties. Agron Shehaj's Mundesia Party claims that it will be able to win not just one, but two or three parliamentary mandates in this region. The votes of Shehaj, who is from Vlora, are supposed to be eroded by the Democratic Party, while, if he really gets votes to be counted in the distribution of mandates, it is to some extent a matter of chance how many votes will be "burned". In other words, he could get votes for approximately two mandates but the formula would give him only one. The votes lost without a mandate in such a situation favor the second largest party in the region, which, in this case, is supposed to be the Democratic Party. But it is also possible that the Opportunity will take on, in the distribution of mandates, the role that the SMI had in 2021, that is, to erode votes from the opposition by favoring the SP with mandates.

The Municipality of Himara is also likely to play a role, if they continue to support the opposition as in the local government elections. In 2021, the Municipality of Himara gave 60% of the votes to the Socialist Party, while in 2023, the opposition candidate won with a narrow result. The votes in the Municipality of Himara are not many to have a major impact on the calculation of mandates. In the 2021 elections, there were a total of 6,100. But the fact is that, if the SP and LSI had competed together in the 2021 elections, the final result would have been 58 to 38 in percentage and 7 to 5 in mandates.

The Vlora region is also a region with a large emigration population and with a national minimum voter turnout. In the 2021 elections, only 33.5% of the population participated. This time, 20 thousand voters have applied to vote remotely, which could increase the votes cast in the May 11 elections by 19% compared to 2021.

Demographic and social profile

The Vlora region extends along the entire southern coast of Albania, a generally rugged area with mountains rising immediately from the seashore to high altitudes. In the southern part, the Vurgu plain, created by the alluvium of the Bistrica River, constitutes an asset for agriculture, while the rest of the territory is mostly used for fruit trees, olive trees, vineyards and livestock. The breeding of small animals has historically been favored by the geographical proximity between the winter pastures in Karaburun and the coast and the summer pastures in the Çika or Gjerë Mountains.

Maritime, mountain and cultural heritage tourism, fishing, livestock and olive groves provide important economic resources for the area, while industry is limited to the city of Vlora. The Narta Lagoon in the north and Lake Butrint in the south constitute significant sources of fish and shellfish in the country.

The abundant economic resources have not helped much to avoid depopulation. The 2023 census counted 147 thousand inhabitants in the entire region, a decrease of 17% compared to 2011 and 23% compared to 2001. As can be seen from these figures, there was more population outflow from the region between 2011 and 2023, when the overall pace of population decline slowed nationally, compared to the previous decade.

The region has an urban character. The cities of Vlora and Saranda, as well as the towns of Orikum, Himara, Ksamil and Konispol, are home to 71% of the region's population. However, both the urban and rural populations have declined over the last decade. The city of Vlora itself had around 66,000 inhabitants in 2023, a 17% decrease compared to 2011.

Candidates

Incumbent MP Bledar Çuçi leads the Socialists' list, while Bujar Leskaj, a career politician known among other things for winning a mandate for the Democrats in Vlora in 2001, leads the opposition's list. Vangjel Dule, a representative of the Greek minority in Albania, has a secure second place on the closed list of opposition candidates, while MP Ina Zhupa and Atird Hoxha, a lawyer, complete the opposition's closed list.

Zamira Sinaj, dean of the Faculty of Economics at the University of Vlora, Erjona Ismaili, director at the Ministry of Interior, and Pirro Vengu, minister and former director, are the SP candidates on the safe lists.

Both parties have 12 candidates each on the open lists. MPs Damian Gjiknuri and Vullnet Sinaj are running on the Socialists' open lists, alongside Ardit Bido, the archive director with patriotic credentials, Gjergji Mërkuri, former customs director and teacher in Saranda, Vasil Llajo, owner of the Intermedica private medical laboratory network, and several lecturers from the University of Vlora filling out the SP's open list.

Nada Daullja, a doctor, Edmond Fetahu, a teacher, Skënder Muço, the owner of a concrete company, and others are running for the opposition. Muço has declared himself the candidate of the Justice, Integration and Unity Party. /BIRN


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