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Is the EU ready to accept new members?

2025-11-11 21:47:41Politikë SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Is the EU ready to accept new members?
Is the EU ready to accept new members?

Two things are very clear after the publication of the European Commission's annual Progress Report on November 4th.

The European Union executive is very serious about accepting new members by the end of the five-year term, at the end of 2029. And it has already identified the candidates: Albania, Montenegro, Moldova, and Ukraine.

This is the first report published by the new composition of the Commission since it began work at the end of last year.

As usual, the document mentions progress – or lack thereof – in the 10 countries aiming for the EU: Kosovo, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Turkey, Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine.

However, it seems that this year's reports have had a geopolitical twist.

After discussions that Radio Free Europe has had with several officials in Brussels in recent months, it is clear that the expansion of the European bloc has once again become a priority.

The last country to join the EU was Croatia in 2013, and since then the European bloc has, in fact, shrunk for the first time, with the departure of the United Kingdom in 2020.

This year's document mentions that "this is the first mandate of the Commission since the 2010-2014 period, when, given the accelerated progress of several candidate countries, enlargement is a real possibility" and that the entire enlargement process "is moving faster than in the last 15 years".

The change in approach is related to the Russian attack on Ukraine in 2022, therefore, according to the European Union's chief diplomat, Kaja Kallas, "geopolitical changes make enlargement something necessary."

"Enlargement is not something that should happen, it is something that must happen if we want to be powerful players on the world stage."

Montenegro first?

All projections indicate that Montenegro could be the newest member. Podgorica has said it aims to conclude membership negotiations by the end of 2026, and the report notes that the country is “on track to meet this ambitious goal.”

This is not a decision that belongs to the European Commission, nor to the candidate country, but to the 27 member states that decide unanimously on the opening and closing of 33 accession chapters covering many areas, which countries aiming for the EU must adopt as national laws, so that everything is in line with the legislation of the European bloc.

Podgorica has been negotiating for 13 years, and although it has opened all 33 chapters, it has managed to close only seven of them – and most of them in the last 12 months, showing some momentum. In December, Montenegro aims to close five more chapters, although some European diplomats told Radio Free Europe that this sounds too optimistic.

The main concerns relate to the fight against organized crime and corruption, as well as the independence of the judiciary.

In other words, 2026 may be too ambitious, but there are increasingly rumors that Montenegro could become the 28th member in 2028.

Albania in line

Albania could be next in line. The Albanian government hopes to conclude membership talks in 2027, although the Commission doubts that this can be achieved.

The country's progress in the last 12 months has been remarkable, as it has managed to open 28 of the 33 chapters and is expected to launch negotiations on the remaining five chapters later this month.

However, closing chapters is a more difficult process than opening them. And from Albania's perspective, it is very important that it makes other changes as well. Although the country has become a tourist destination, and many Europeans are buying property near the coast, many European officials say that Albania still suffers from what they describe as a hotbed of organized crime.

Therefore, it may come as no surprise that one of the European Commission's recommendations is that Tirana should make more efforts to “investigate drug traffickers and identify and dismantle criminal groups”.

What about Moldova and Ukraine?

Their applications are "paired" and have been so since the beginning, as both applied for membership in 2022 and are expected to continue to be so, despite some rumors that this year each application may be treated separately.

This would allow Moldova to move forward and start membership talks, as Ukraine continues to be blocked by Hungary and is expected to remain in that position until parliamentary elections are held in this Central European country in April 2026.

Moldova hopes to join the EU in 2028, while Ukraine believes it can become a member this decade, despite the war on its territory.

Both countries have received very good ratings from the Commission, although Kiev has been warned about attempts to influence the anti-corruption agencies NABU and SAP.

Although these two countries remain blocked, all EU member states – except Hungary – have agreed to continue technical work with Chisinau and Kiev until they receive the political green light from Budapest, where there could be a change of power next year. The idea is then to open as many chapters as possible.

In most European capitals, there is a belief that at least half of the chapters can be opened, despite EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos saying that negotiations could start immediately on all 33 chapters if Budapest makes the big U-turn.

Meanwhile, there will also be discussions on how to make the enlargement process as practical as possible.

European Council President Antonio Costa has said that the possibility of unanimity may be needed to launch and conclude accession negotiations, something that has been rejected by EU member states, which prefer to have many options in their hands to block the process.

This is not only the position of Hungary, but also of other countries that have problems with neighboring non-member countries.

For example, Bulgaria is now blocking North Macedonia, or is it Croatia that wants to hold Serbia accountable before Belgrade joins.

In recent weeks, there have been many other speculations about how enlargement might work. One discussion includes the idea of ​​member states not having a vote on some issues – a kind of secondary membership that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky immediately rejected when asked last week.

Amidst all these discussions, the European Commission will work on analyzing pre-accession policies and reforms, in order to assess the impact of the new members in various spheres.

Kos has already mentioned the idea of ​​introducing a mechanism that could suspend voting rights or block access to EU funds for new member states, in the event of violations in the rule of law sector.

Other countries seem to have been reluctant to accept this proposal, as Western countries in particular fear that they are expanding the bloc with "another Hungary", with which they have problems in the area of ​​the rule of law.

The most realistic option to make enlargement manageable is to mechanize transitional periods – something that has been used in previous processes, for example in 2004 when eight Central and Eastern European countries were admitted.

For example, citizens of these countries are not allowed to immediately work in any other EU country.

Poland, a country with a large agricultural market, has not been fully integrated into the EU's single market. A similar arrangement for Ukrainian agricultural products would not be surprising.

Of most countries, Ukraine will be the most challenging, given the size and consequences of the war. To "absorb" Albania, Moldova, and Montenegro, it will be somewhat easier.

Commissioner Kos alludes to the fact that Montenegro's population, around 600,000, is the same as the Belgian port city of Antwerp, and that Albania and Moldova, with less than three million inhabitants, are each the size of Rome, Italy.

In other words, the EU needs to make many changes to its rules and budgetary plans if it is to add this trio.

Therefore, it should not be surprising if they will be the 28th, 29th and 30th countries of the EU./ Taken from REL


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